Degerfors IF
vs
Vasteras SK FK
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Degerfors IF 0–1 Vasteras SK FK
The model makes it 29% Degerfors IF, 29% draw, 42% Vasteras SK FK — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Degerfors IF 1.06, Vasteras SK FK 1.37.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Vasteras SK FK: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Degerfors IF are 13th on 20 points from 23 games; Vasteras SK FK are 7th on 35 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- Degerfors IF are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Mjallby AIF.
- Vasteras SK FK have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to IFK Goteborg.
- Last 6 meetings: Degerfors IF 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 July 2026, ended Vasteras SK FK 2–0 Degerfors IF.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasteras SK FK at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK
Degerfors IF
- D1-1away to Mjallby AIF10 October 2026
- L0-1Hammarby FF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sirius14 September 2026
- W2-0Halmstad5 September 2026
- L0-2away to IF Elfsborg29 August 2026
Vasteras SK FK
- L0-1away to IFK Goteborg9 October 2026
- W2-0Malmo FF19 September 2026
- W4-1away to AIK Stockholm12 September 2026
- L0-1Sirius5 September 2026
- W3-1away to BK Hacken29 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Degerfors IF had two goals or fewer.
- Degerfors IF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Degerfors IF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasteras SK FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Degerfors IF | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 20 |
| 7 | Vasteras SK FK | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK
- 12 July 2026Vasteras SK FK 2–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 14 February 2026Vasteras SK FK 0–1 Degerfors IFFriendlies Clubs
- 8 March 2025Degerfors IF 1–0 Vasteras SK FKFriendlies Clubs
- 15 July 2024Degerfors IF 3–1 Vasteras SK FKFriendlies Clubs
- 26 March 2024Vasteras SK FK 0–0 Degerfors IFFriendlies Clubs
- 14 March 2021Degerfors IF 3–4 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen
Leading scorers: Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK
Degerfors IF
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Vasteras SK FK
GoalsAssists
- M. Ladefoged92
- A. Taonsa80
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Degerfors IF carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.44 for Vasteras SK FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Degerfors IF and 1.37 for Vasteras SK FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Degerfors IF rate 0.44 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vasteras SK FK rate 0.65 and 1.48.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasteras SK FK the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Degerfors IF against 1.37 for Vasteras SK FK. Degerfors IF's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.48 for Vasteras SK FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Degerfors IF at home · Vasteras SK FK away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Degerfors IF 23, Vasteras SK FK 23.
Degerfors IF score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Vasteras SK FK have let in 6 there.
Vasteras SK FK score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Degerfors IF have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Degerfors IF
- at Djurgardens IF1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 12%
- vs Gais7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 24%
- at AIK Stockholm21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 25%
Vasteras SK FK
- vs IF Brommapojkarna1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 47%
- at Orgryte IS7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 48%
- at Gais21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.