Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes La Plata Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Union Santa Fe 3-1 Estudiantes La Plata.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Union Santa Fe, 29% draw, 35% Estudiantes La Plata — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union Santa Fe at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes La Plata
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21M. MansillaG
- 27T. RubioD
- 4M. RochaD
- 26J. LudueñaD
- 18L. AyalaD
- 20J. PalaciosM
- 34Mateo PeresuttiM
- 17J. MosqueiraM
- 22B. CuelloM
- 25C. TarragonaF
- 19M. EstigarribiaF
- 12B. PittónD
- 15J. PintadoD
- 43E. RamírezF
- 23A. SolariM
- 44T. FagioliD
- 38V. J. CerrudoF
- 31M. AguirreF
- 8E. GiacconeM
- 33I. IslaD
- 16F. MusleraG
- 20E. MezaD
- 14L. GonzálezD
- 24T. PalaciosD
- 13G. BenedettiD
- 10T. PalaciosM
- 21Lucas Ezequiel PioviM
- 31B. GallegoM
- 40E. MancusoF
- 19A. GaichF
- 18E. CetréF
- 27L. AlarioF
- 22A. CastroM
- 1F. IacovichG
- 52B. KociubinskiM
- 34M. MonsalveM
- 4S. NúñezD
- 29F. Pérez EscuderoF
- 5M. RojoD
- 41Benjamin Sagues BarreiroF
Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes La Plata
Union Santa Fe
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D1-1away to Deportivo Riestra20 October 2026
- L0-2Defensa Y Justicia10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Boca Juniors3 October 2026
- L1-2Independiente19 September 2026
Estudiantes La Plata
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L1-2San Lorenzo18 October 2026
- D2-2away to Central Cordoba de Santiago10 October 2026
- W3-0Gimnasia Mendoza5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Lanus22 September 2026
What these results say
- Union Santa Fe did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Estudiantes La Plata had three goals or more.
- Estudiantes La Plata failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 17 |
| 11 | Estudiantes La Plata | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes La Plata
- 11 April 2026Estudiantes La Plata 2–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 July 2025Union Santa Fe 1–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 January 2025Estudiantes La Plata 3–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 July 2024Estudiantes La Plata 0–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 February 2024Union Santa Fe 0–1 Estudiantes La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 26 August 2023Estudiantes La Plata 1–3 Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Estudiantes La Plata
Union Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- C. Tarragona152
Estudiantes La Plata
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Union Santa Fe beat Estudiantes La Plata 3–1. The model had made a win for Union Santa Fe its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Lucas Ayala (own goal) 40' for Estudiantes La Plata, Cristian Tarragona 51' for Union Santa Fe, Marcelo Estigarriba 64' for Union Santa Fe, Erik Ramirez 90+6' for Union Santa Fe. On expected goals it finished 2.01–0.55.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Union Santa Fe a 20.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 2.4% after a win, 20.2% after a draw, 36.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.4%, 18.3 points lower than before the match.
For Estudiantes La Plata the question was the chance to finish in the top eight: 37.0% after a win, 10.1% after a draw, 3.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 3.1%.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.