Hammarby FF
vs
Sirius
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Hammarby FF 2–1 Sirius
The model makes it 50% Hammarby FF, 24% draw, 26% Sirius — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hammarby FF 2.01, Sirius 1.33.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Hammarby FF are 3rd on 43 points from 23 games; Sirius are top on 54 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- Hammarby FF have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Djurgardens IF.
- Sirius are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Gais.
- Last 6 meetings: Hammarby FF 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 April 2026, ended Sirius 2–0 Hammarby FF.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hammarby FF vs Sirius
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hammarby FF at 50% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hammarby FF vs Sirius
Hammarby FF
- L0-1Djurgardens IF11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Degerfors IF20 September 2026
- W3-1IF Brommapojkarna13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Orgryte IS6 September 2026
- L2-3away to AIK Stockholm30 August 2026
Sirius
- W1-0away to Gais10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Orgryte IS19 September 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Vasteras SK FK5 September 2026
- L0-1Malmo FF31 August 2026
What these results say
- Hammarby FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hammarby FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sirius won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sirius scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sirius had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hammarby FF | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 21 | +28 | 43 |
| 1 | Sirius | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 53 | 28 | +25 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hammarby FF vs Sirius
- 13 April 2026Sirius 2–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 22 March 2026Hammarby FF 2–2 SiriusSvenska Cupen
- 24 August 2025Sirius 3–1 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 14 May 2025Hammarby FF 3–2 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 26 October 2024Sirius 0–3 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 26 May 2024Hammarby FF 3–0 SiriusAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Hammarby FF and Sirius
Hammarby FF
GoalsAssists
- P. Abraham143
- V. Lind911
Sirius
GoalsAssists
- R. Ure152
- I. Bjerkebo146
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hammarby FF carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.6 for Sirius. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Hammarby FF and 1.33 for Sirius. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hammarby FF rate 0.85 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sirius rate 0.87 and 1.45.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sirius, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hammarby FF a 3.6% chance of the title and Sirius 87.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hammarby FF the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Hammarby FF against 1.33 for Sirius. Hammarby FF's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.45 for Sirius.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hammarby FF at home · Sirius away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Hammarby FF 23, Sirius 23.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Hammarby FF
- at Malmo FF1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 46%
- vs IF Elfsborg6 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 50%
- vs IFK Goteborg23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 62%
Sirius
- vs Halmstad3 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 72%
- at Kalmar FF8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 55%
- vs Djurgardens IF22 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.