Plzen
vs
Pardubice
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Plzen 2–0 Pardubice
The model makes it 60% Plzen, 23% draw, 17% Pardubice — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Plzen 2.19, Pardubice 0.96.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Plzen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Plzen are 10th on 13 points from 10 games; Pardubice are 14th on 8 points from 10 games — Czech Liga.
- Plzen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Mlada Boleslav.
- Pardubice have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Sparta Praha.
- Last 6 meetings: Plzen 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Plzen 0–1 Pardubice.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Plzen vs Pardubice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plzen at 60% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Plzen vs Pardubice
Plzen
- W3-0Mlada Boleslav10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Slavia Praha20 September 2026
- L2-3Sigma Olomouc13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hradec Králové9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Artis5 September 2026
Pardubice
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha11 October 2026
- W2-1Bohemians 190519 September 2026
- W2-1away to Baník Ostrava13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slovácko5 September 2026
- L1-2Artis29 August 2026
What these results say
- Plzen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Plzen had three goals or more.
- Pardubice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Plzen | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 13 |
| 14 | Pardubice | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Plzen
Chance to finish in the top four · 39% today
Pardubice
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Plzen vs Pardubice
- 19 April 2026Plzen 0–1 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 18 July 2025Pardubice 1–5 PlzenCzech Liga
- 9 March 2025Pardubice 0–0 PlzenCzech Liga
- 6 October 2024Plzen 2–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 2 March 2024Pardubice 2–3 PlzenCzech Liga
- 24 September 2023Plzen 6–2 PardubiceCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Plzen and Pardubice
Plzen
GoalsAssists
- C. Kabongo40
Pardubice
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Plzen carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.54 for Pardubice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.19 goals for Plzen and 0.96 for Pardubice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Plzen rate 1.13 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pardubice rate 0.69 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Plzen a 0.4% chance of the title and Pardubice 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Plzen the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Plzen against 0.96 for Pardubice. Plzen's attack/defence rating is 1.13/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.28 for Pardubice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Plzen at home · Pardubice away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Plzen 10, Pardubice 10.
Plzen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Pardubice have let in 1 there.
Pardubice score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Plzen have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Plzen
- at Baník Ostrava1 Nov · Czech Ligawin 55%
- at Lillestrom5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 45%
Pardubice
- vs Slovan Liberec31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 29%
- at Teplice8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 25%
- vs Zbrojovka Brno22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 37%
- at FK Jablonec29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.