Apoel Nicosia
vs
Omonia 29is Maiou
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Apoel Nicosia 2–1 Omonia 29is Maiou
The model makes it 53% Apoel Nicosia, 23% draw, 24% Omonia 29is Maiou — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Apoel Nicosia 2.24, Omonia 29is Maiou 1.34.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Apoel Nicosia are 7th on 7 points from 5 games; Omonia 29is Maiou are 9th on 5 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- Apoel Nicosia have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Nea Salamis.
- Omonia 29is Maiou are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to AEL.
- Last 3 meetings: Apoel Nicosia 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 January 2025, ended Apoel Nicosia 6–1 Omonia 29is Maiou.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Apoel Nicosia vs Omonia 29is Maiou
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Apoel Nicosia at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Apoel Nicosia vs Omonia 29is Maiou
Apoel Nicosia
- W2-1Nea Salamis10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Apollon Limassol19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Anorthosis12 September 2026
- W6-0AEL6 September 2026
- L1-3away to AEK Larnaca29 August 2026
Omonia 29is Maiou
- L1-2away to AEL11 October 2026
- L1-2AEK Larnaca18 September 2026
- D3-3away to Olympiakos13 September 2026
- D2-2Karmiotissa4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Krasava Ypsonas28 August 2026
What these results say
- Apoel Nicosia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Apoel Nicosia had three goals or more.
- Apoel Nicosia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Omonia 29is Maiou scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Omonia 29is Maiou had three goals or more.
- Omonia 29is Maiou failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Apoel Nicosia vs Omonia 29is Maiou
- 16 January 2025Apoel Nicosia 6–1 Omonia 29is MaiouCup
- 12 January 2025Apoel Nicosia 4–0 Omonia 29is Maiou1. Division
- 29 September 2024Omonia 29is Maiou 0–0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Apoel Nicosia carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.52 for Omonia 29is Maiou. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.24 goals for Apoel Nicosia and 1.34 for Omonia 29is Maiou. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Apoel Nicosia rate 0.84 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Omonia 29is Maiou rate 0.83 and 1.64.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Apoel Nicosia the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Apoel Nicosia against 1.34 for Omonia 29is Maiou. Apoel Nicosia's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.64 for Omonia 29is Maiou.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Apoel Nicosia at home · Omonia 29is Maiou away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Apoel Nicosia 5, Omonia 29is Maiou 5.
Apoel Nicosia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Omonia 29is Maiou have let in 3 there.
Omonia 29is Maiou score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Apoel Nicosia have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Apoel Nicosia
- at Omonia Aradippou1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 35%
- vs Aris8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 47%
- at Omonia Nicosia21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 11%
- vs Krasava Ypsonas28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 63%
Omonia 29is Maiou
- vs Nea Salamis1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 50%
- at Pafos8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 18%
- at Apollon Limassol22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 20%
- vs Omonia Aradippou27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.