Lecce
vs
Juventus
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Lecce 0–1 Juventus
The model makes it 16% Lecce, 26% draw, 58% Juventus — fair odds of 6.25, 3.85 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Lecce 0.71, Juventus 1.79.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Juventus are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Lecce are 13th on 6 points from 6 games; Juventus are 6th on 11 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Lecce have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bologna.
- Juventus have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Cagliari.
- Last 6 meetings: Juventus 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Lecce 0–1 Juventus.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lecce vs Juventus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juventus at 58% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lecce vs Juventus
Lecce
- L1-2Bologna11 October 2026
- L0-3away to AC Milan20 September 2026
- W3-2Monza13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cagliari7 September 2026
- L0-4AS Roma31 August 2026
Juventus
- D1-1away to Cagliari11 October 2026
- W2-0Atalanta20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sassuolo13 September 2026
- D1-1AC Milan6 September 2026
- W2-0Parma29 August 2026
What these results say
- Lecce conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lecce failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lecce had three goals or more.
- Juventus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Juventus had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 6 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lecce
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 45% today
Juventus
Chance to finish in the top four · 45% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Juventus vs Lecce
Juventus and Lecce have met 6 times in the records we hold, Juventus has won 4 of them to Lecce's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
Juventus won the last one 1–0 on 9 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| Lecce | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 9 May 2026
Serie ALecce 0–1 Juventus - 3 Jan 2026
Serie AJuventus 1–1 Lecce - 12 Apr 2025
Serie AJuventus 2–1 Lecce - 1 Dec 2024
Serie ALecce 1–1 Juventus - 21 Jan 2024
Serie ALecce 0–3 Juventus - 26 Sep 2023
Serie AJuventus 1–0 Lecce
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
A clear gap in the ratings
Lecce carry a model rating of 6.66 against 7.17 for Juventus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.71 goals for Lecce and 1.79 for Juventus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lecce rate 0.74 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Juventus rate 1.31 and 0.69.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lecce a 0% chance of the title and Juventus 4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventus the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Lecce against 1.79 for Juventus. Lecce's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.31/0.69 for Juventus.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lecce at home · Juventus away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LecceJuventus
Lecce are 12th after 6 Serie A matches (between 2nd and 14th so far); Juventus are 6th after 6 (between 2nd and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Lecce 6, Juventus 6.
Lecce score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Juventus have let in 0 there.
Juventus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Lecce have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lecce
- at Frosinone29 Oct · Serie Awin 22%
- vs Genoa1 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- at Torino7 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
- at Lazio21 Nov · Serie Awin 20%
Juventus
- at Genoa28 Oct · Serie Awin 55%
- vs Napoli1 Nov · Serie Awin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.