Neftchi Fergana
vs
Al-Ittihad
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Neftchi Fergana 1–2 Al-Ittihad
The model makes it 24% Neftchi Fergana, 25% draw, 51% Al-Ittihad — fair odds of 4.17, 4.00 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Neftchi Fergana 1.19, Al-Ittihad 1.97.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Ittihad are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Neftchi Fergana are 7th on 3 points from 2 games; Al-Ittihad are 11th on 1 point from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al-Ittihad have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Al-Hilal.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Neftchi Fergana vs Al-Ittihad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ittihad at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Neftchi Fergana vs Al-Ittihad
Neftchi Fergana
- L1-3away to Al-Nassr12 October 2026
- W1-0Al Quwa Al Jawiya14 September 2026
Al-Ittihad
- L1-2Shabab Al Ahli Dubai13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Shamal14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Neftchi Fergana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Neftchi Fergana and Al-Ittihad
Neftchi Fergana
GoalsAssists
- Alisher Odilov10
Al-Ittihad
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Neftchi Fergana carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.68 for Al-Ittihad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Neftchi Fergana and 1.97 for Al-Ittihad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Neftchi Fergana rate 0.55 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Ittihad rate 0.86 and 1.22.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Neftchi Fergana, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ittihad the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Neftchi Fergana against 1.97 for Al-Ittihad. Neftchi Fergana's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.22 for Al-Ittihad.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Neftchi Fergana
- at Tractor Sazi2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 11%
- vs Al-Hilal23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 11%
- at Esteghlal FC7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 11%
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 15%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC15 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 4%
Al-Ittihad
- at Abha30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 52%
- vs Al Ain2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.