Maghreb Fès
vs
Renaissance Berkane
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Maghreb Fès 1–0 Renaissance Berkane
The model makes it 38% Maghreb Fès, 33% draw, 29% Renaissance Berkane — fair odds of 2.63, 3.03 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Maghreb Fès 1.06, Renaissance Berkane 0.85.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 30%, under 2.5: 70%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 919 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Maghreb Fès's rating is built from 34 Botola Pro matches and Renaissance Berkane's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 518 matches.
Key facts
- Maghreb Fès are 5th on 7 points from 4 games; Renaissance Berkane are 12th on 3 points from 3 games — Botola Pro.
- Maghreb Fès have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Ittihad Tanger.
- Renaissance Berkane are unbeaten in their last 3 games (0 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to CR Khemis Zemamra.
- Last 6 meetings: Renaissance Berkane 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 June 2026, ended Maghreb Fès 1–2 Renaissance Berkane.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Maghreb Fès vs Renaissance Berkane
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maghreb Fès at 38% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 3,359 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Maghreb Fès vs Renaissance Berkane
Maghreb Fès
- L1-2away to Ittihad Tanger14 October 2026
- D0-0Raja Casablanca8 October 2026
- W2-1away to Hassania Agadir3 October 2026
- W2-1CR Khemis Zemamra27 September 2026
Renaissance Berkane
- D2-2CR Khemis Zemamra13 October 2026
- D0-0away to UTS Rabat8 October 2026
- D0-0away to Moghreb Tetouan27 September 2026
What these results say
- Maghreb Fès scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Maghreb Fès conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Maghreb Fès had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Maghreb Fès | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 12 | Renaissance Berkane | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Maghreb Fès vs Renaissance Berkane
- 21 June 2026Maghreb Fès 1–2 Renaissance BerkaneBotola Pro
- 5 April 2026Renaissance Berkane 1–1 Maghreb FèsBotola Pro
- 11 May 2025Maghreb Fès 1–3 Renaissance BerkaneBotola Pro
- 22 December 2024Renaissance Berkane 2–0 Maghreb FèsBotola Pro
- 20 March 2024Renaissance Berkane 2–1 Maghreb FèsBotola Pro
- 29 October 2023Maghreb Fès 0–0 Renaissance BerkaneBotola Pro
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Maghreb Fès carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.44 for Renaissance Berkane. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Maghreb Fès and 0.85 for Renaissance Berkane. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maghreb Fès rate 0.62 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Renaissance Berkane rate 0.60 and 1.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,088 correct results out of 4,337 settled predictions (48%), with 440 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maghreb Fès the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Maghreb Fès against 0.85 for Renaissance Berkane. Maghreb Fès's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.38 for Renaissance Berkane.
Season stats
Maghreb Fès at home · Renaissance Berkane away
League matches only, Botola Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Maghreb FèsRenaissance Berkane
Maghreb Fès are 4th after 4 Botola Pro matches (between 1st and 4th so far); Renaissance Berkane are 11th after 3 (between 6th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Botola Pro matches this season: Maghreb Fès 4, Renaissance Berkane 3.
Maghreb Fès score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Renaissance Berkane have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Maghreb Fès
- at Widad Témara1 Nov · Botola Prowin 41%
- vs FUS Rabat7 Nov · Botola Prowin 48%
Renaissance Berkane
- vs Raja Casablanca1 Nov · Botola Prowin 33%
- at Hassania Agadir6 Nov · Botola Prowin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.