Roda
vs
De Graafschap
KNVB Beker prediction
Our model says: Roda 1–0 De Graafschap
The model makes it 45% Roda, 30% draw, 25% De Graafschap — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Roda 1.33, De Graafschap 0.86.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Roda are 6th on 16 points from 10 games; De Graafschap are 16th on 11 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Roda have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Jong PSV U21.
- De Graafschap are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Jong Utrecht.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 December 2025, ended De Graafschap 2–3 Roda.
Chance to go through
KNVB Beker Round of 64 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Roda47%
- Level after ninety minutes29%
- De Graafschap24%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More KNVB Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Roda vs De Graafschap
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Roda at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Roda vs De Graafschap
Roda
- D1-1Jong PSV U219 October 2026
- L0-2away to VVV Venlo4 October 2026
- W2-0Waalwijk26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jong Ajax18 September 2026
- W1-0Vitesse12 September 2026
De Graafschap
- W2-1Jong Utrecht9 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Eindhoven3 October 2026
- W1-0Den Bosch27 September 2026
- L1-2NAC Breda20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Emmen11 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Roda had two goals or fewer.
- De Graafschap scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- De Graafschap conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for De Graafschap had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Roda | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 16 |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Roda vs De Graafschap
- 12 December 2025De Graafschap 2–3 RodaEerste Divisie
- 15 August 2025Roda 1–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 6 April 2025De Graafschap 2–0 RodaEerste Divisie
- 1 September 2024Roda 1–4 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 19 April 2024Roda 1–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 29 September 2023De Graafschap 0–0 RodaEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Roda and De Graafschap
Roda
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
De Graafschap
GoalsAssists
- J. Kania50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Roda carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.26 for De Graafschap. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Roda and 0.86 for De Graafschap. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Roda rate 0.44 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; De Graafschap rate 0.57 and 1.86.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Roda the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Roda against 0.86 for De Graafschap. Roda's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.86 for De Graafschap.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Roda at home · De Graafschap away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Roda 10, De Graafschap 10.
Roda score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); De Graafschap have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Roda
- vs Jong AZ30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
- at Heracles6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
- vs FC Volendam14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- at FC OSS20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
De Graafschap
- at FC Volendam30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 18%
- at Vitesse8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
- vs FC OSS14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 42%
- vs MVV20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.