Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Tigre 0-1 Atletico Tucuman.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Tigre, 31% draw, 26% Atletico Tucuman — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigre at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12F. ZenobioG
- 8M. GarayD
- 2J. LasoD
- 20A. BarrionuevoD
- 24F. ÁlvarezD
- 22S. LópezM
- 27S. GonzálezM
- 5B. LeyesM
- 10J. SaraleguiM
- 30J. DóminaF
- 29I. RussoF
- 28P. MartínezM
- 21S. MedinaM
- 26L. MoralesG
- 4V. MorenoD
- 33M. MéndezF
- 19A. OviedoF
- 50I. PeluffoF
- 23G. RequenaD
- 11T. SerragoM
- 1L. IngolottiG
- 24L. Di PlácidoD
- 26C. FerreiraD
- 36Luciano VallejoD
- 32J. InfanteD
- 19L. VegaM
- 11R. TesuriM
- 31L. GodoyM
- 10F. NicolaM
- 23N. LaméndolaM
- 18R. Ruíz RodríguezF
- 14A. CaneloF
- 30M. BrondoF
- 28G. CompagnucciD
- 25T. DursoG
- 9L. DíazF
- 5J. FernándezM
- 6G. FerrariD
- 27R. GranilloF
- 8E. HamM
Form going into Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman
Tigre
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D2-2away to Independiente Rivadavia17 October 2026
- L1-2Banfield10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Argentinos Juniors4 October 2026
- L2-3away to Velez Sarsfield21 September 2026
Atletico Tucuman
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L2-3Rosario Central17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gimnasia La Plata9 October 2026
- L2-3Barracas Central3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Aldosivi21 September 2026
What these results say
- Tigre did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Tigre scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Tigre conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tigre | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Atletico Tucuman | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman
- 12 April 2026Atletico Tucuman 0–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 October 2024Atletico Tucuman 1–2 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 May 2023Tigre 0–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 August 2022Tigre 0–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 September 2018Atletico Tucuman 3–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 February 2018Atletico Tucuman 0–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Tigre and Atletico Tucuman
Tigre
GoalsAssists
- I. Russo83
- M. Méndez73
- D. Romero72
Atletico Tucuman
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Tucuman won 1–0 at Tigre. The model had leaned towards a win for Tigre at 43% and given a win for Atletico Tucuman 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez 72' for Atletico Tucuman. Sent off: Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez (Atletico Tucuman) 75'. On expected goals it finished 1.34–1.02.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tigre a 14.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.8% after a win, 16.3% after a draw, 34.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.1%, 19.7 points higher than before the match.
For Atletico Tucuman the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.9% going in: under 1% after a win, 12.9% after a draw, 29.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 17 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Tigre v Atletico Tucuman has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 41% / 33% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 31% / 26%: the biggest move is Tigre's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Tigre win43%▲ +2
- Draw31%▼ −2
- Atletico Tucuman win26%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.