Daejeon Citizen
vs
Vissel Kobe
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Daejeon Citizen 2–1 Vissel Kobe
The model makes it 46% Daejeon Citizen, 25% draw, 29% Vissel Kobe — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Daejeon Citizen 1.95, Vissel Kobe 1.44.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Daejeon Citizen are 6th on 4 points from 2 games; Vissel Kobe are 7th on 3 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Daejeon Citizen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Jeonbuk Motors.
- Vissel Kobe have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Kashima.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Daejeon Citizen vs Vissel Kobe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Daejeon Citizen at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Daejeon Citizen vs Vissel Kobe
Daejeon Citizen
- D1-1away to SHANGHAI SIPG13 October 2026
- W1-0Kyoto Sanga15 September 2026
Vissel Kobe
- W2-1away to Port FC16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Daejeon Citizen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | Vissel Kobe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Daejeon Citizen carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.61 for Vissel Kobe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.44 for Vissel Kobe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Daejeon Citizen rate 0.88 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vissel Kobe rate 0.78 and 1.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Daejeon Citizen the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen against 1.44 for Vissel Kobe. Daejeon Citizen's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.25 for Vissel Kobe.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Daejeon Citizen
- at Kashiwa Reysol3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 28%
- vs Beijing Guoan24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 55%
- at Johor Darul Takzim FC1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 33%
Vissel Kobe
- vs Ratchaburi3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 70%
- at Công An Nhân Dân24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 44%
- vs Newcastle Jets1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 59%
- vs Pohang Steelers10 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 60%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.