Aarhus Fremad
vs
FC Copenhagen
DBU Pokalen prediction
Our model says: Aarhus Fremad 0–2 FC Copenhagen
The model makes it 17% Aarhus Fremad, 24% draw, 59% FC Copenhagen — fair odds of 5.88, 4.17 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Aarhus Fremad 0.84, FC Copenhagen 1.96.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FC Copenhagen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Aarhus Fremad are 6th in 1. Division on 13 points from 10 games; FC Copenhagen are top in Superliga on 24 points from 10 games.
- Aarhus Fremad are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to AB Copenhagen.
- FC Copenhagen have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to FC Midtjylland.
Chance to go through
DBU Pokalen Round of 16 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Aarhus Fremad15%
- Level after ninety minutes22%
- FC Copenhagen63%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More DBU Pokalen predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aarhus Fremad vs FC Copenhagen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Copenhagen at 59% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aarhus Fremad vs FC Copenhagen
Aarhus Fremad
- L0-2away to AB Copenhagen9 October 2026
- L1-3Hvidovre19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Vendsyssel FF11 September 2026
- W2-1Kolding IF6 September 2026
- D0-0Vejle30 August 2026
FC Copenhagen
- L1-2away to FC Midtjylland11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Brondby20 September 2026
- W2-0AC Horsens11 September 2026
- W5-0away to Odense6 September 2026
- W2-0FC Nordsjaelland3 September 2026
What these results say
- Aarhus Fremad failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Copenhagen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Copenhagen won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Copenhagen kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Aarhus Fremad and FC Copenhagen in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aarhus Fremad | 1. Division | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 24 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: 1. Division · Superliga
Leading scorers: Aarhus Fremad and FC Copenhagen
Aarhus Fremad
No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
FC Copenhagen
GoalsAssists
- M. Elyounoussi72
- B. Meling41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Aarhus Fremad carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.83 for FC Copenhagen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.84 goals for Aarhus Fremad and 1.96 for FC Copenhagen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aarhus Fremad rate 0.48 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Copenhagen rate 1.03 and 1.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Copenhagen the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Aarhus Fremad against 1.96 for FC Copenhagen. Aarhus Fremad's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.07 for FC Copenhagen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aarhus Fremad at home · FC Copenhagen away
League matches only, this season — Aarhus Fremad in the 1. Division, FC Copenhagen in the Superliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Aarhus Fremad 10 in the 1. Division, FC Copenhagen 10 in the Superliga.
FC Copenhagen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Aarhus Fremad have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Aarhus Fremad
- vs Hillerød1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 49%
- at Hvidovre9 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 25%
- vs Hobro20 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 49%
- at HB Koge28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 32%
FC Copenhagen
- at Sonderjyske2 Nov · Superligawin 60%
- vs FC Iberia 19995 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 75%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.