FF Jaro
vs
PK-35
Finnish Premier League prediction
Our model says: FF Jaro 1–2 PK-35
The model makes it 34% FF Jaro, 27% draw, 39% PK-35 — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FF Jaro 1.35, PK-35 1.48.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 904 settled matches.
Edge to PK-35: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. FF Jaro's rating is built from 54 Finnish Premier League matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most; PK-35's from its last 6 matches. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 513 matches.
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: FF Jaro 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 September 2024, ended PK-35 0–1 FF Jaro.
More Finnish Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FF Jaro vs PK-35
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PK-35 at 39% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 3,310 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FF Jaro vs PK-35
FF Jaro
- D1-1Mariehamn17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Turku PS10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lahti18 September 2026
- D1-1SJK12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Ilves8 September 2026
PK-35
No earlier matches on record this season.
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for FF Jaro had two goals or fewer.
- FF Jaro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FF Jaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: FF Jaro vs PK-35
- 28 September 2024PK-35 0–1 FF JaroYkkösliiga
- 17 July 2024PK-35 2–1 FF JaroYkkösliiga
- 19 May 2024FF Jaro 2–1 PK-35Ykkösliiga
- 16 July 2022PK-35 0–4 FF JaroYkkönen
- 15 May 2022FF Jaro 4–0 PK-35Ykkönen
- 13 March 2022PK-35 0–0 FF JaroYkköscup
Leading scorers: FF Jaro and PK-35
FF Jaro
GoalsAssists
- V. Vuorinen22
PK-35
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FF Jaro carry a model rating of 5.89 against 6.02 for PK-35. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for FF Jaro and 1.48 for PK-35. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FF Jaro rate 0.36 in attack and 2.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PK-35 rate 0.43 and 2.24.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PK-35 the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for FF Jaro against 1.48 for PK-35. FF Jaro's attack/defence rating is 0.36/2.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.24 for PK-35.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.