Koper
vs
Maribor
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Koper 1–0 Maribor
The model makes it 41% Koper, 28% draw, 31% Maribor — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Koper 1.42, Maribor 1.19.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Koper are 2nd on 19 points from 11 games; Maribor are top on 23 points from 11 games — 1. SNL.
- Koper have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Radomlje.
- Maribor are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Brinje-Grosuplje.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Maribor 2–0 Koper.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Koper vs Maribor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Koper at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Koper vs Maribor
Koper
- D3-3away to Radomlje10 October 2026
- W2-0Nafta19 September 2026
- L1-3Olimpija Ljubljana12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Celje6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Aluminij28 August 2026
Maribor
- W2-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje11 October 2026
- D2-2Aluminij19 September 2026
- W3-0away to Radomlje13 September 2026
- D1-1Mura6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Nafta30 August 2026
What these results say
- Koper scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maribor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Maribor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maribor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Koper | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Koper
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 17% today
Maribor
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 52% today
From our 1. SNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Koper vs Maribor
- 9 August 2026Maribor 2–0 Koper1. SNL
- 14 April 2026Koper 3–1 Maribor1. SNL
- 8 February 2026Maribor 2–0 Koper1. SNL
- 19 October 2025Koper 1–0 Maribor1. SNL
- 3 August 2025Maribor 2–2 Koper1. SNL
- 18 May 2025Koper 1–1 Maribor1. SNL
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Koper carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.59 for Maribor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Koper and 1.19 for Maribor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Koper rate 0.70 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maribor rate 0.74 and 1.25.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Maribor, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Koper a 16.7% chance of the title and Maribor 52.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Koper the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Koper against 1.19 for Maribor. Koper's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.25 for Maribor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Koper at home · Maribor away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Koper 11, Maribor 11.
Koper score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Maribor have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Koper
- at Bravo2 Nov · 1. SNLwin 33%
- vs Mura7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 64%
- at Aluminij21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 38%
- vs Celje28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 39%
Maribor
- vs Olimpija Ljubljana31 Oct · 1. SNLwin 49%
- at Bravo7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 35%
- vs Nafta21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 55%
- at Mura28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.