Slask Wroclaw
vs
Wieczysta Kraków
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Slask Wroclaw 2–1 Wieczysta Kraków
The model makes it 39% Slask Wroclaw, 25% draw, 36% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Slask Wroclaw 1.74, Wieczysta Kraków 1.67.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Slask Wroclaw and Wieczysta Kraków are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Slask Wroclaw are 17th on 6 points from 10 games; Wieczysta Kraków are 15th on 8 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Slask Wroclaw have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Lech Poznan.
- Wieczysta Kraków have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to GKS Katowice.
- Last 2 meetings: both drawn; the most recent, 30 November 2025, ended Wieczysta Kraków 3–3 Slask Wroclaw.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Slask Wroclaw vs Wieczysta Kraków
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slask Wroclaw at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Slask Wroclaw vs Wieczysta Kraków
Slask Wroclaw
- L1-4Lech Poznan10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow18 September 2026
- L1-2Korona Kielce12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Jagiellonia6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Legia Warszawa28 August 2026
Wieczysta Kraków
- L1-2away to GKS Katowice12 October 2026
- W3-0Wisla Plock9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin13 September 2026
- D1-1Zaglebie Lubin7 September 2026
What these results say
- Slask Wroclaw did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Slask Wroclaw
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 55% today
Wieczysta Kraków
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Slask Wroclaw vs Wieczysta Kraków
- 30 November 2025Wieczysta Kraków 3–3 Slask WroclawI Liga
- 18 July 2025Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Wieczysta KrakówI Liga
Leading scorers: Slask Wroclaw and Wieczysta Kraków
Slask Wroclaw
GoalsAssists
- P. Samiec-Talar43
Wieczysta Kraków
GoalsAssists
- Lucas Piazón32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Slask Wroclaw carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.6 for Wieczysta Kraków. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.67 for Wieczysta Kraków. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slask Wroclaw rate 0.73 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wieczysta Kraków rate 0.86 and 1.44.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Wieczysta Kraków, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slask Wroclaw the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw against 1.67 for Wieczysta Kraków. Slask Wroclaw's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.44 for Wieczysta Kraków.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Slask Wroclaw at home · Wieczysta Kraków away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Slask WroclawWieczysta Kraków
Slask Wroclaw are 17th after 10 Ekstraklasa matches (between 8th and 17th so far); Wieczysta Kraków are 15th after 10 (between 12th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Slask Wroclaw 10, Wieczysta Kraków 10.
Slask Wroclaw score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Wieczysta Kraków have let in 8 there.
Wieczysta Kraków score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Slask Wroclaw have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Slask Wroclaw
- at Radomiak Radom31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 33%
- vs Piast Gliwice7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 35%
- at Pogon Szczecin21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 18%
- vs GKS Katowice28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 29%
Wieczysta Kraków
- vs Jagiellonia31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 42%
- at Gornik Zabrze7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 19%
- vs Motor Lublin21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 47%
- at Legia Warszawa28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.