Dynamo Dresden
vs
FC Schalke 04
DFB Pokal prediction
Our model says: Dynamo Dresden 0–1 FC Schalke 04
The model makes it 27% Dynamo Dresden, 30% draw, 43% FC Schalke 04 — fair odds of 3.70, 3.33 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Dynamo Dresden 0.92, FC Schalke 04 1.31.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: FC Schalke 04 are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dynamo Dresden are 16th in 2. Bundesliga on 5 points from 7 games; FC Schalke 04 are 13th in Bundesliga on 5 points from 5 games.
- Dynamo Dresden have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to VfL Osnabrück.
- FC Schalke 04 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to SC Freiburg.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Schalke 04 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended FC Schalke 04 2–2 Dynamo Dresden.
Chance to go through
DFB Pokal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Dynamo Dresden26%
- Level after ninety minutes29%
- FC Schalke 0445%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More DFB Pokal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Schalke 04 at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04
Dynamo Dresden
- D1-1away to VfL Osnabrück10 October 2026
- L1-2Hertha BSC19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Eintracht Braunschweig12 September 2026
- L1-2VfL Bochum5 September 2026
- L3-5away to 1. FC Heidenheim29 August 2026
FC Schalke 04
- L1-2away to SC Freiburg11 October 2026
- D0-0SV Elversberg20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Union Berlin11 September 2026
- D0-0Bayern München5 September 2026
- L0-3away to FC Augsburg30 August 2026
What these results say
- Dynamo Dresden did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Schalke 04 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Dynamo Dresden and FC Schalke 04 in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Dynamo Dresden | 2. Bundesliga | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 5 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: 2. Bundesliga · Bundesliga
Head-to-head: Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04
- 7 February 2026FC Schalke 04 2–2 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 31 August 2025Dynamo Dresden 0–1 FC Schalke 042. Bundesliga
- 1 April 2022Dynamo Dresden 1–2 FC Schalke 042. Bundesliga
- 23 October 2021FC Schalke 04 3–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 18 August 2014Dynamo Dresden 2–1 FC Schalke 04DFB Pokal
The two sides
Dynamo Dresden carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.81 for FC Schalke 04. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.31 for FC Schalke 04. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dynamo Dresden rate 0.69 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Schalke 04 rate 0.71 and 0.82.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Schalke 04 the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden against 1.31 for FC Schalke 04. Dynamo Dresden's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/0.82 for FC Schalke 04.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dynamo Dresden at home · FC Schalke 04 away
League matches only, this season — Dynamo Dresden in the 2. Bundesliga, FC Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Dynamo Dresden 7 in the 2. Bundesliga, FC Schalke 04 5 in the Bundesliga.
Dynamo Dresden score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); FC Schalke 04 have let in 1 there.
FC Schalke 04 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Dynamo Dresden have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dynamo Dresden
- at Hannover 961 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
- vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 43%
- at 1. FC Kaiserslautern22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 26%
- vs FC St. Pauli28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 32%
FC Schalke 04
- vs RB Leipzig31 Oct · Bundesligawin 24%
- at 1899 Hoffenheim8 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
- vs VfB Stuttgart21 Nov · Bundesligawin 30%
- at SC Paderborn 0728 Nov · Bundesligawin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.