MVV
vs
Excelsior
KNVB Beker prediction
Our model says: MVV 0–2 Excelsior
The model makes it 16% MVV, 24% draw, 60% Excelsior — fair odds of 6.25, 4.17 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: MVV 0.82, Excelsior 2.01.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Excelsior are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- MVV are 7th in Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season on 16 points from 10 games; Excelsior are 9th in Eredivisie on 11 points from 8 games.
- MVV have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to NAC Breda.
- Excelsior are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat at home to Groningen.
- Last 6 meetings: Excelsior 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 April 2025, ended MVV 1–2 Excelsior.
Chance to go through
KNVB Beker Round of 64 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- MVV14%
- Level after ninety minutes21%
- Excelsior65%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More KNVB Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: MVV vs Excelsior
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Excelsior at 60% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into MVV vs Excelsior
MVV
- L0-1away to NAC Breda9 October 2026
- L1-4away to FC OSS3 October 2026
- W2-0Helmond Sport26 September 2026
- L1-6away to Waalwijk18 September 2026
- L0-4Almere City FC11 September 2026
Excelsior
- L1-5Groningen11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Ajax19 September 2026
- L1-2Utrecht13 September 2026
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen8 September 2026
- W3-0away to Willem II5 September 2026
What these results say
- MVV failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- MVV conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Excelsior scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Excelsior had three goals or more.
- Excelsior failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
MVV and Excelsior in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 16 |
| 9 | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 11 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Eerste Divisie · Eredivisie
Head-to-head: MVV vs Excelsior
- 4 April 2025MVV 1–2 ExcelsiorEerste Divisie
- 18 October 2024Excelsior 3–2 MVVEerste Divisie
- 19 October 2022Excelsior 5–1 MVVKNVB Beker
- 15 April 2022MVV 1–1 ExcelsiorEerste Divisie
- 10 December 2021Excelsior 2–1 MVVEerste Divisie
- 20 February 2021MVV 1–0 ExcelsiorEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: MVV and Excelsior
MVV
GoalsAssists
- O. Dumont51
Excelsior
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
MVV carry a model rating of 6.09 against 6.68 for Excelsior. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.82 goals for MVV and 2.01 for Excelsior. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MVV rate 0.43 in attack and 1.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Excelsior rate 0.84 and 1.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Excelsior the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for MVV against 2.01 for Excelsior. MVV's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.17 for Excelsior.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
MVV at home · Excelsior away
League matches only, this season — MVV in the Eerste Divisie, Excelsior in the Eredivisie. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: MVV 10 in the Eerste Divisie, Excelsior 8 in the Eredivisie.
MVV score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Excelsior have let in 2 there.
Excelsior score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); MVV have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
MVV
- vs VVV Venlo31 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- at Emmen8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 20%
- vs Vitesse15 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
- at De Graafschap20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
Excelsior
- vs Twente1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 29%
- vs GO Ahead Eagles7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 42%
- at Feyenoord21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 14%
- vs Telstar28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.