FC Porto B
vs
União de Leiria
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Porto B 2–1 União de Leiria
The model makes it 47% FC Porto B, 24% draw, 29% União de Leiria — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: FC Porto B 2.12, União de Leiria 1.56.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Porto B are 13th on 7 points from 7 games; União de Leiria are 9th on 10 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- FC Porto B have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Leixoes.
- União de Leiria have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Academica.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2026, ended União de Leiria 2–2 FC Porto B.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Porto B vs União de Leiria
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto B at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Porto B vs União de Leiria
FC Porto B
- W2-1away to Leixoes10 October 2026
- D2-2Vizela14 September 2026
- L0-3away to Tondela5 September 2026
- L0-3Penafiel30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Feirense24 August 2026
União de Leiria
- L0-2Academica11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Amarante13 September 2026
- W1-0Portimonense6 September 2026
- W2-0Tondela28 August 2026
- W4-2away to Leixoes22 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Porto B conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Porto B had three goals or more.
- União de Leiria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Porto B
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today
União de Leiria
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Porto B vs União de Leiria
- 15 February 2026União de Leiria 2–2 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
- 14 September 2025FC Porto B 1–2 União de LeiriaSegunda Liga
- 9 February 2025União de Leiria 0–0 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
- 1 September 2024FC Porto B 1–1 União de LeiriaSegunda Liga
- 3 February 2024União de Leiria 1–1 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
- 27 August 2023FC Porto B 2–1 União de LeiriaSegunda Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Porto B carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.44 for União de Leiria. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.12 goals for FC Porto B and 1.56 for União de Leiria. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Porto B rate 0.74 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; União de Leiria rate 0.76 and 1.76.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour União de Leiria, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Porto B a 1.2% chance of the title and União de Leiria 2.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Porto B the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for FC Porto B against 1.56 for União de Leiria. FC Porto B's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.76 for União de Leiria.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Porto B at home · União de Leiria away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: FC Porto B 7, União de Leiria 7.
FC Porto B score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); União de Leiria have let in 1 there.
União de Leiria score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); FC Porto B have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Porto B
- at Amarante31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- vs Portimonense8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 50%
- vs Torreense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 36%
- at Felgueiras 193229 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- vs Academica6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 49%
União de Leiria
- vs AVS31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- at Torreense9 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 22%
- vs Sporting CP B15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- at Farense28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 24%
- vs Chaves6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.