Fortuna Sittard
vs
Excelsior
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Fortuna Sittard 2–1 Excelsior
The model makes it 40% Fortuna Sittard, 26% draw, 34% Excelsior — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fortuna Sittard 1.72, Excelsior 1.54.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Fortuna Sittard are 7th on 14 points from 8 games; Excelsior are 9th on 11 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- Fortuna Sittard have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Twente.
- Excelsior are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat at home to Groningen.
- Last 6 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 February 2026, ended Fortuna Sittard 2–1 Excelsior.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortuna Sittard at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior
Fortuna Sittard
- D1-1Twente10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Willem II19 September 2026
- L1-5Ajax12 September 2026
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Groningen28 August 2026
Excelsior
- L1-5Groningen11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Ajax19 September 2026
- L1-2Utrecht13 September 2026
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen8 September 2026
- W3-0away to Willem II5 September 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Sittard scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Fortuna Sittard.
- Excelsior scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Excelsior had three goals or more.
- Excelsior failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard
Excelsior and Fortuna Sittard have met 6 times in the records we hold, Fortuna Sittard has won 3 of them to Excelsior's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Fortuna Sittard won the last one 2–1 on 20 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 3.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 20 Feb 2026
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 2–1 Excelsior - 19 Oct 2025
EredivisieExcelsior 1–0 Fortuna Sittard - 3 Mar 2024
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 5–2 Excelsior - 26 Aug 2023
EredivisieExcelsior 2–2 Fortuna Sittard - 21 May 2023
EredivisieExcelsior 3–0 Fortuna Sittard - 17 Sep 2022
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 1–0 Excelsior
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 0.84 | 1.17 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 0.80 | 1.25 |
Leading scorers: Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior
Fortuna Sittard
GoalsAssists
- M. Ihattaren33
Excelsior
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fortuna Sittard carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.68 for Excelsior. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.54 for Excelsior. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortuna Sittard rate 0.80 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Excelsior rate 0.84 and 1.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortuna Sittard the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard against 1.54 for Excelsior. Fortuna Sittard's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.17 for Excelsior.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fortuna Sittard at home · Excelsior away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Fortuna SittardExcelsior
Fortuna Sittard are 6th after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); Excelsior are 9th after 8 (between 1st and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Fortuna Sittard 8, Excelsior 8.
Excelsior score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Fortuna Sittard have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fortuna Sittard
- at Sparta Rotterdam28 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 34%
- at Feyenoord31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 12%
- vs Telstar7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 45%
- at GO Ahead Eagles22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 27%
- vs Heerenveen29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 38%
Excelsior
- at MVV28 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 60%
- vs Twente1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 29%
- vs GO Ahead Eagles7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 42%
- at Feyenoord21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 14%
- vs Telstar28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.