FC Dallas
vs
San Jose Earthquakes
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: FC Dallas 2–1 San Jose Earthquakes
The model makes it 47% FC Dallas, 24% draw, 29% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Dallas 2.01, San Jose Earthquakes 1.48.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Dallas are 3rd on 47 points from 28 games; San Jose Earthquakes are 4th on 46 points from 28 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- FC Dallas have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Charlotte.
- San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Colorado Rapids.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended San Jose Earthquakes 2–3 FC Dallas.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Dallas at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
FC Dallas
- L2-3away to Charlotte10 October 2026
- W1-0Los Angeles FC27 September 2026
- D0-0Austin20 September 2026
- W2-1Portland Timbers13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Minnesota United FC10 September 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
- D1-1away to Colorado Rapids11 October 2026
- W3-1Portland Timbers27 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC19 September 2026
- W1-0Houston Dynamo13 September 2026
- W3-2away to San Diego10 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Dallas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 45 | +7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 50 | 40 | +10 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Dallas
Chance to finish in the top four · 81% today
San Jose Earthquakes
Chance to finish in the top four · 56% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
- 17 May 2026San Jose Earthquakes 2–3 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2025San Jose Earthquakes 2–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 26 June 2025FC Dallas 2–4 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 3 October 2024San Jose Earthquakes 3–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 25 February 2024FC Dallas 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 8 October 2023FC Dallas 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes
FC Dallas
GoalsAssists
- P. Musa195
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd152
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Dallas carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.48 for San Jose Earthquakes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for FC Dallas and 1.48 for San Jose Earthquakes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Dallas rate 0.75 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Jose Earthquakes rate 0.70 and 1.46.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Dallas a 5.6% chance of the title and San Jose Earthquakes 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Dallas the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for FC Dallas against 1.48 for San Jose Earthquakes. FC Dallas's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.46 for San Jose Earthquakes.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Dallas at home · San Jose Earthquakes away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: FC Dallas 28, San Jose Earthquakes 28.
FC Dallas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); San Jose Earthquakes have let in 11 there.
San Jose Earthquakes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (12 goals); FC Dallas have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Dallas
- vs Columbus Crew29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 47%
- at Sporting Kansas City31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 46%
- vs Colorado Rapids8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 48%
San Jose Earthquakes
- vs Colorado Rapids29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 46%
- vs Real Salt Lake31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 49%
- at Minnesota United FC8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.