Leicester
vs
Wigan
League One prediction
Our model says: Leicester 1–0 Wigan
The model makes it 57% Leicester, 26% draw, 17% Wigan — fair odds of 1.75, 3.85 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Leicester 1.77, Wigan 0.72.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Leicester are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Leicester are 17th on 9 points from 8 games; Wigan are bottom on 4 points from 8 games — League One.
- Leicester have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Peterborough.
- Wigan are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Stevenage.
- Last 3 meetings: Leicester 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 January 2020, ended Leicester 2–0 Wigan.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leicester vs Wigan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leicester at 57% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Leicester vs Wigan
Leicester
- L1-3Peterborough10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Barnsley19 September 2026
- W4-3away to Stockport County12 September 2026
- L0-4Oxford United5 September 2026
- W2-0Plymouth1 September 2026
Wigan
- L0-1away to Stevenage10 October 2026
- L0-1Wycombe19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sheffield Wednesday12 September 2026
- L0-4Stockport County5 September 2026
- W3-1Milton Keynes Dons2 September 2026
What these results say
- Leicester scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leicester conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wigan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wigan failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wigan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 9 |
| 24 | Wigan | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Leicester
Chance to finish in the top four · 31% today
Wigan
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Leicester vs Wigan
- 4 January 2020Leicester 2–0 WiganFA Cup
- 1 April 2014Wigan 2–2 LeicesterChampionship
- 14 September 2013Leicester 2–0 WiganChampionship
The two sides
Leicester carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.11 for Wigan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Leicester and 0.72 for Wigan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leicester rate 0.66 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wigan rate 0.39 and 1.77.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leicester a 6.8% chance of the title and Wigan 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leicester the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Leicester against 0.72 for Wigan. Leicester's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.77 for Wigan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leicester at home · Wigan away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Leicester 8, Wigan 8.
Leicester score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Wigan have let in 3 there.
Wigan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Leicester have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Leicester
- vs Stevenage31 Oct · League Onewin 46%
- vs Bradford14 Nov · League Onewin 42%
Wigan
- vs Bromley31 Oct · League Onewin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.