Podbeskidzie
vs
Stal Rzeszów
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Podbeskidzie 2–1 Stal Rzeszów
The model makes it 50% Podbeskidzie, 26% draw, 24% Stal Rzeszów — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Podbeskidzie 1.79, Stal Rzeszów 1.09.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Podbeskidzie are 15th on 11 points from 10 games; Stal Rzeszów are 9th on 14 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Podbeskidzie are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Pogoń Siedlce.
- Stal Rzeszów have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Lechia Gdansk.
- Last 6 meetings: Stal Rzeszów 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 September 2026, ended Stal Rzeszów 3–0 Podbeskidzie.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Podbeskidzie at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów
Podbeskidzie
- W1-0Pogoń Siedlce9 October 2026
- D1-1Unia Skierniewice20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Ruch Chorzów12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Polonia Bytom6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Puszcza Niepołomice29 August 2026
Stal Rzeszów
- L1-2Lechia Gdansk12 October 2026
- W3-2away to Miedz Legnica19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Odra Opole13 September 2026
- W2-1Polonia Warszawa5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Unia Skierniewice28 August 2026
What these results say
- Podbeskidzie failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Podbeskidzie had two goals or fewer.
- Stal Rzeszów scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stal Rzeszów won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Stal Rzeszów | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Podbeskidzie
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
Stal Rzeszów
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 33% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów
- 1 September 2026Stal Rzeszów 3–0 PodbeskidzieCup
- 19 April 2024Stal Rzeszów 2–2 PodbeskidzieI Liga
- 7 October 2023Podbeskidzie 0–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga
- 2 April 2023Podbeskidzie 2–2 Stal RzeszówI Liga
- 27 August 2022Stal Rzeszów 5–0 PodbeskidzieI Liga
- 15 August 2020Stal Rzeszów 0–1 PodbeskidzieCup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Podbeskidzie carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.14 for Stal Rzeszów. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Podbeskidzie and 1.09 for Stal Rzeszów. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Podbeskidzie rate 0.52 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stal Rzeszów rate 0.51 and 2.12.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stal Rzeszów, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Podbeskidzie a 0.4% chance of the title and Stal Rzeszów 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Podbeskidzie the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Podbeskidzie against 1.09 for Stal Rzeszów. Podbeskidzie's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.12 for Stal Rzeszów.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Podbeskidzie at home · Stal Rzeszów away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Podbeskidzie 10, Stal Rzeszów 10.
Podbeskidzie score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Stal Rzeszów have let in 2 there.
Stal Rzeszów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Podbeskidzie have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Podbeskidzie
- vs Warta Poznań31 Oct · I Ligawin 39%
- at Arka Gdynia7 Nov · I Ligawin 20%
- vs Nieciecza21 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
- vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki28 Nov · I Ligawin 37%
Stal Rzeszów
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice2 Nov · I Ligawin 39%
- at ŁKS Łódź8 Nov · I Ligawin 20%
- vs Polonia Bytom21 Nov · I Ligawin 39%
- at Nieciecza28 Nov · I Ligawin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.