Esbjerg
vs
FC Nordsjaelland
DBU Pokalen prediction
Our model says: Esbjerg 0–2 FC Nordsjaelland
The model makes it 17% Esbjerg, 24% draw, 59% FC Nordsjaelland — fair odds of 5.88, 4.17 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Esbjerg 0.87, FC Nordsjaelland 2.02.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FC Nordsjaelland are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Esbjerg are bottom in 1. Division on 6 points from 10 games; FC Nordsjaelland are 4th in Superliga on 18 points from 10 games.
- Esbjerg have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Aalborg.
- FC Nordsjaelland have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Odense.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 February 2020, ended Esbjerg 1–2 FC Nordsjaelland.
Chance to go through
DBU Pokalen Round of 16 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Esbjerg15%
- Level after ninety minutes21%
- FC Nordsjaelland64%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Nordsjaelland at 59% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland
Esbjerg
- D3-3Aalborg10 October 2026
- L0-3away to AB Copenhagen19 September 2026
- D2-2HB Koge12 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Fredericia5 September 2026
- L0-2Vendsyssel FF30 August 2026
FC Nordsjaelland
- D0-0Odense9 October 2026
- L1-4away to Viborg20 September 2026
- W2-0Aarhus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Midtjylland7 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Copenhagen3 September 2026
What these results say
- Esbjerg did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Esbjerg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Nordsjaelland failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Esbjerg and FC Nordsjaelland in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Esbjerg | 1. Division | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 6 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: 1. Division · Superliga
Head-to-head: Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland
- 29 February 2020Esbjerg 1–2 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 28 July 2019FC Nordsjaelland 2–0 EsbjergSuperliga
- 6 May 2019Esbjerg 0–0 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 14 April 2019FC Nordsjaelland 1–2 EsbjergSuperliga
- 16 December 2018Esbjerg 3–0 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 15 July 2018FC Nordsjaelland 1–1 EsbjergSuperliga
Leading scorers: Esbjerg and FC Nordsjaelland
Esbjerg
No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
FC Nordsjaelland
GoalsAssists
- A. Lind31
- H. Boe Rasmussen31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Esbjerg carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.7 for FC Nordsjaelland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.87 goals for Esbjerg and 2.02 for FC Nordsjaelland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Esbjerg rate 0.53 in attack and 2.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Nordsjaelland rate 0.73 and 1.01.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Nordsjaelland the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Esbjerg against 2.02 for FC Nordsjaelland. Esbjerg's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.01 for FC Nordsjaelland.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Esbjerg at home · FC Nordsjaelland away
League matches only, this season — Esbjerg in the 1. Division, FC Nordsjaelland in the Superliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Esbjerg 10 in the 1. Division, FC Nordsjaelland 10 in the Superliga.
Esbjerg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); FC Nordsjaelland have let in 0 there.
FC Nordsjaelland score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Esbjerg have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Esbjerg
- vs Hvidovre31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 33%
- at Hobro7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- vs AB Copenhagen21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 35%
- at Aalborg26 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 27%
FC Nordsjaelland
- vs FC Midtjylland1 Nov · Superligawin 30%
- at Monaco5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.