Sporting Cristal
vs
Alianza Lima
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Sporting Cristal 1–0 Alianza Lima
The model makes it 38% Sporting Cristal, 28% draw, 34% Alianza Lima — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sporting Cristal 1.37, Alianza Lima 1.26.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Sporting Cristal are 9th on 41 points from 28 games; Alianza Lima are top on 59 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Sporting Cristal are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to UTC Cajamarca.
- Alianza Lima have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Cusco.
- Last 6 meetings: Alianza Lima 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Alianza Lima 1–1 Sporting Cristal.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Cristal at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima
Sporting Cristal
- W1-0away to UTC Cajamarca11 October 2026
- W3-1Atletico Grau19 September 2026
- W2-1away to UCV Moquegua13 September 2026
- W5-0Club Deportivo Los Chankas6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sport Boys30 August 2026
Alianza Lima
- W2-1away to Cusco11 October 2026
- W2-0ADT19 September 2026
- L1-2Universitario13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Juan Pablo II College6 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Garcilaso30 August 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Cristal won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Cristal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Lima scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Lima conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 49 | 40 | +9 | 41 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 28 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 46 | 19 | +27 | 59 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima
- 10 May 2026Alianza Lima 1–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 7 December 2025Alianza Lima 3–3 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 3 December 2025Sporting Cristal 1–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 6 August 2025Alianza Lima 0–0 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 2 March 2025Sporting Cristal 1–2 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 18 August 2024Sporting Cristal 0–0 Alianza LimaPrimera División
Leading scorers: Sporting Cristal and Alianza Lima
Sporting Cristal
GoalsAssists
- H. Barcos93
- L. Iberico70
Alianza Lima
GoalsAssists
- E. Castillo175
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sporting Cristal carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.61 for Alianza Lima. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Sporting Cristal and 1.26 for Alianza Lima. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting Cristal rate 0.75 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alianza Lima rate 0.68 and 1.12.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Alianza Lima, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sporting Cristal a 0% chance of the title and Alianza Lima 98.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting Cristal the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sporting Cristal against 1.26 for Alianza Lima. Sporting Cristal's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.12 for Alianza Lima.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sporting Cristal at home · Alianza Lima away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Sporting Cristal 28, Alianza Lima 28.
Sporting Cristal score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Alianza Lima have let in 3 there.
Alianza Lima score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Sporting Cristal have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sporting Cristal
- vs FC Cajamarca31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 62%
- at ADT7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 46%
- vs Cienciano14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 53%
Alianza Lima
- vs Cienciano31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 56%
- at Club Deportivo Los Chankas7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 48%
- vs FC Cajamarca14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 65%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.