Bukovyna
vs
Kryvbas KR
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Bukovyna 2–1 Kryvbas KR
The model makes it 44% Bukovyna, 26% draw, 30% Kryvbas KR — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bukovyna 1.67, Kryvbas KR 1.30.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bukovyna are 10th on 8 points from 8 games; Kryvbas KR are 14th on 5 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Bukovyna are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Polessya.
- Kryvbas KR are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Polessya.
- Last 2 meetings: Kryvbas KR 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 June 2015, ended Hirnyk 1–0 Bukovyna.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bukovyna at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR
Bukovyna
- D2-2Polessya11 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC Kharkiv19 September 2026
- D1-1Zorya Luhansk13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi6 September 2026
- W3-0Dynamo Kyiv31 August 2026
Kryvbas KR
- L0-1away to Polessya18 September 2026
- D2-2Kolos Kovalivka5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Chornomorets30 August 2026
- D1-1Livyi Bereh15 August 2026
- W3-1away to Zorya Luhansk9 August 2026
What these results say
- Bukovyna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kryvbas KR conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kryvbas KR failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bukovyna | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bukovyna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
Kryvbas KR
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR
- 3 June 2015Hirnyk 1–0 BukovynaPersha Liga
- 2 November 2014Bukovyna 0–1 HirnykPersha Liga
Leading scorers: Bukovyna and Kryvbas KR
Bukovyna
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Kryvbas KR
GoalsAssists
- A. Herbert12
- Y. Shevchenko11
- R. Nawi11
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bukovyna carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.4 for Kryvbas KR. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Bukovyna and 1.30 for Kryvbas KR. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bukovyna rate 0.53 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kryvbas KR rate 0.76 and 1.94.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bukovyna the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Bukovyna against 1.30 for Kryvbas KR. Bukovyna's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.94 for Kryvbas KR.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bukovyna at home · Kryvbas KR away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Bukovyna 8, Kryvbas KR 6.
Bukovyna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Kryvbas KR have let in 2 there.
Kryvbas KR score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Bukovyna have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bukovyna
- at Livyi Bereh31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Kolos Kovalivka7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Veres Rivne21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at Shakhtar Donetsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 9%
Kryvbas KR
- vs Dynamo Kyiv31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs Kudrivka21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 64%
- vs FC Kharkiv25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.