Raja Casablanca
vs
Hassania Agadir
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Raja Casablanca 1–0 Hassania Agadir
The model makes it 46% Raja Casablanca, 28% draw, 26% Hassania Agadir — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Raja Casablanca 1.54, Hassania Agadir 1.00.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,012 settled matches.
Edge to Raja Casablanca: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Raja Casablanca's rating is built from 33 Botola Pro matches and Hassania Agadir's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 518 matches.
Key facts
- Raja Casablanca are 8th on 5 points from 3 games; Hassania Agadir are 3rd on 7 points from 4 games — Botola Pro.
- Raja Casablanca are unbeaten in their last 3 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to FUS Rabat.
- Hassania Agadir have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to FAR Rabat.
- Last 6 meetings: Raja Casablanca 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 July 2026, ended Raja Casablanca 2–0 Hassania Agadir.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Raja Casablanca vs Hassania Agadir
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Raja Casablanca at 46% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Raja Casablanca vs Hassania Agadir
Raja Casablanca
- D1-1away to FUS Rabat13 October 2026
- D0-0away to Maghreb Fès8 October 2026
- W1-0CR Khemis Zemamra3 October 2026
Hassania Agadir
- D2-2FAR Rabat12 October 2026
- W5-2away to CR Khemis Zemamra8 October 2026
- L1-2Maghreb Fès3 October 2026
- W3-2away to Kawkab Marrakech27 September 2026
What these results say
- Hassania Agadir scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hassania Agadir conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Hassania Agadir had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Raja Casablanca | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 3 | Hassania Agadir | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Raja Casablanca vs Hassania Agadir
- 2 July 2026Raja Casablanca 2–0 Hassania AgadirBotola Pro
- 1 March 2026Hassania Agadir 0–1 Raja CasablancaBotola Pro
- 23 April 2025Raja Casablanca 1–0 Hassania AgadirBotola Pro
- 1 December 2024Hassania Agadir 1–3 Raja CasablancaBotola Pro
- 11 May 2024Hassania Agadir 2–4 Raja CasablancaCup
- 20 February 2024Raja Casablanca 2–0 Hassania AgadirBotola Pro
The two sides
Raja Casablanca carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.34 for Hassania Agadir. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Raja Casablanca and 1.00 for Hassania Agadir. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Raja Casablanca rate 0.61 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hassania Agadir rate 0.71 and 2.03.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hassania Agadir, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,088 correct results out of 4,337 settled predictions (48%), with 440 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raja Casablanca the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Raja Casablanca against 1.00 for Hassania Agadir. Raja Casablanca's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/2.03 for Hassania Agadir.
Season stats
Raja Casablanca at home · Hassania Agadir away
League matches only, Botola Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Raja CasablancaHassania Agadir
Raja Casablanca are 5th after 3 Botola Pro matches (between 5th and 6th so far); Hassania Agadir are 1st after 4 (between 1st and 6th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Botola Pro matches this season: Raja Casablanca 3, Hassania Agadir 4.
Raja Casablanca score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Hassania Agadir have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Raja Casablanca
- at Renaissance Berkane1 Nov · Botola Prowin 34%
- at FAR Rabat4 Nov · Botola Prowin 33%
- vs Ittihad Tanger8 Nov · Botola Prowin 42%
Hassania Agadir
- at FUS Rabat31 Oct · Botola Prowin 38%
- vs Renaissance Berkane6 Nov · Botola Prowin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.