Górnik Łęczna
vs
GKS Katowice
Cup prediction
Our model says: Górnik Łęczna 0–2 GKS Katowice
The model makes it 15% Górnik Łęczna, 20% draw, 65% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 6.67, 5.00 and 1.54. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Górnik Łęczna 0.92, GKS Katowice 2.46.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: GKS Katowice are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- GKS Katowice are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Wieczysta Kraków.
- Last 6 meetings: GKS Katowice 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2024, ended GKS Katowice 0–0 Górnik Łęczna.
Chance to go through
Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Górnik Łęczna12%
- Level after ninety minutes17%
- GKS Katowice71%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Polish Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Górnik Łęczna vs GKS Katowice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts GKS Katowice at 65% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Górnik Łęczna vs GKS Katowice
Górnik Łęczna
No earlier matches on record this season.
GKS Katowice
- W2-1Wieczysta Kraków12 October 2026
- W4-1away to Raków Częstochowa9 October 2026
- W3-2Cracovia Krakow19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Piast Gliwice4 September 2026
What these results say
- GKS Katowice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for GKS Katowice had three goals or more.
- GKS Katowice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Górnik Łęczna vs GKS Katowice
- 25 April 2024GKS Katowice 0–0 Górnik ŁęcznaI Liga
- 22 October 2023Górnik Łęczna 1–1 GKS KatowiceI Liga
- 15 April 2023GKS Katowice 2–0 Górnik ŁęcznaI Liga
- 10 September 2022Górnik Łęczna 2–2 GKS KatowiceI Liga
- 3 June 2020GKS Katowice 2–1 Górnik ŁęcznaII Liga - East
- 25 August 2019Górnik Łęczna 1–0 GKS KatowiceII Liga - East
Leading scorers: Górnik Łęczna and GKS Katowice
Górnik Łęczna
No leading scorers listed yet.
GKS Katowice
GoalsAssists
- I. Shkurin81
- B. Nowak48
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Górnik Łęczna carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.77 for GKS Katowice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for Górnik Łęczna and 2.46 for GKS Katowice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Górnik Łęczna rate 0.48 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GKS Katowice rate 1.00 and 1.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GKS Katowice the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna against 2.46 for GKS Katowice. Górnik Łęczna's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.18 for GKS Katowice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Górnik Łęczna
No further matches on our board yet.
GKS Katowice
- vs Widzew Łódź31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 53%
- at Jagiellonia7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 36%
- vs Lech Poznan21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 35%
- at Slask Wroclaw28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.