AC Oulu
vs
VPS
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: AC Oulu 1–0 VPS
The model makes it 38% AC Oulu, 28% draw, 34% VPS — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: AC Oulu 1.40, VPS 1.27.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- AC Oulu are bottom on 37 points from 27 games; VPS are 5th on 39 points from 27 games — Veikkausliiga.
- AC Oulu have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to HJK Helsinki.
- VPS have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Gnistan.
- Last 6 meetings: AC Oulu 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 September 2026, ended VPS 1–0 AC Oulu.
More Veikkausliiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AC Oulu vs VPS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AC Oulu at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AC Oulu vs VPS
AC Oulu
- L3-4HJK Helsinki12 October 2026
- W1-0away to KuPS8 October 2026
- L0-1Inter Turku18 September 2026
- L1-2Gnistan12 September 2026
- L0-1away to VPS8 September 2026
VPS
- W1-0Gnistan12 October 2026
- L0-6away to HJK Helsinki8 October 2026
- L0-2KuPS19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
- W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026
What these results say
- AC Oulu failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- AC Oulu conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for VPS had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AC Oulu | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 5 | VPS | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AC Oulu vs VPS
- 8 September 2026VPS 1–0 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
- 23 June 2026VPS 5–1 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
- 18 April 2026AC Oulu 1–0 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 24 January 2026VPS 1–4 AC OuluLeague Cup
- 4 October 2025AC Oulu 2–0 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 28 June 2025AC Oulu 2–1 VPSVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: AC Oulu and VPS
AC Oulu
GoalsAssists
- R. Riski30
- J. Körkkö22
VPS
GoalsAssists
- L. Smyth50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AC Oulu carry a model rating of 6.08 against 6.12 for VPS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for AC Oulu and 1.27 for VPS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AC Oulu rate 0.43 in attack and 2.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VPS rate 0.45 and 1.95.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour VPS, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AC Oulu the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for AC Oulu against 1.27 for VPS. AC Oulu's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.95 for VPS.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AC Oulu at home · VPS away
League matches only, Veikkausliiga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Veikkausliiga matches this season: AC Oulu 27, VPS 27.
AC Oulu score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); VPS have let in 8 there.
VPS score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); AC Oulu have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
AC Oulu
- vs KuPS1 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 25%
- at HJK Helsinki8 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 18%
VPS
- vs HJK Helsinki2 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 28%
- at Gnistan8 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.