Aberdeen
vs
Falkirk
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Aberdeen 1–0 Falkirk
The model makes it 42% Aberdeen, 28% draw, 30% Falkirk — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aberdeen 1.52, Falkirk 1.20.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Aberdeen are 8th on 8 points from 8 games; Falkirk are 11th on 6 points from 8 games — Premiership.
- Aberdeen have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to St Johnstone.
- Falkirk have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Dundee.
- Last 3 meetings: Falkirk 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Aberdeen 1–1 Falkirk.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aberdeen vs Falkirk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aberdeen at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aberdeen vs Falkirk
Aberdeen
- L0-1St Johnstone11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hibernian19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Motherwell15 September 2026
- D0-0Kilmarnock5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Celtic2 September 2026
Falkirk
- L1-2Dundee10 October 2026
- D1-1away to St Johnstone19 September 2026
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee United5 September 2026
- L1-2Rangers2 September 2026
What these results say
- Aberdeen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Falkirk.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs Falkirk
- 14 March 2026Aberdeen 1–1 FalkirkPremiership
- 3 January 2026Falkirk 1–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 31 August 2025Aberdeen 0–1 FalkirkPremiership
Leading scorers: Aberdeen and Falkirk
Aberdeen
GoalsAssists
- K. Nisbet32
Falkirk
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aberdeen carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.33 for Falkirk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Aberdeen and 1.20 for Falkirk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aberdeen rate 0.52 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Falkirk rate 0.61 and 1.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aberdeen the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Aberdeen against 1.20 for Falkirk. Aberdeen's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.74 for Falkirk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aberdeen at home · Falkirk away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AberdeenFalkirk
Aberdeen are 8th after 8 Premiership matches (between 2nd and 10th so far); Falkirk are 11th after 8 (between 9th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Aberdeen 8, Falkirk 8.
Aberdeen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Falkirk have let in 4 there.
Falkirk score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Aberdeen have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Aberdeen
- at Rangers31 Oct · Premiershipwin 14%
- vs Hibernian7 Nov · Premiershipwin 37%
- at Kilmarnock21 Nov · Premiershipwin 33%
Falkirk
- vs Celtic31 Oct · Premiershipwin 20%
- at Heart of Midlothian8 Nov · Premiershipwin 15%
- vs St Johnstone21 Nov · Premiershipwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.