Johor Darul Takzim FC
vs
Port FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Johor Darul Takzim FC 3–1 Port FC
The model makes it 72% Johor Darul Takzim FC, 16% draw, 12% Port FC — fair odds of 1.39, 6.25 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Johor Darul Takzim FC 3.31, Port FC 1.15.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Johor Darul Takzim FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Johor Darul Takzim FC are 5th on 4 points from 2 games; Port FC are 12th on 0 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Port FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Johor Darul Takzim FC at 72% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Port FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
- W2-0away to Pohang Steelers13 October 2026
- D1-1Buriram United15 September 2026
Port FC
- L1-2Vissel Kobe16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
| 12 | Port FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Johor Darul Takzim FC carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.16 for Port FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.31 goals for Johor Darul Takzim FC and 1.15 for Port FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Johor Darul Takzim FC rate 0.88 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Port FC rate 0.53 and 2.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Johor Darul Takzim FC the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.31 expected goals for Johor Darul Takzim FC against 1.15 for Port FC. Johor Darul Takzim FC's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.12 for Port FC.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Johor Darul Takzim FC
- at Jeonbuk Motors3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 25%
- at Ratchaburi24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 43%
- vs Daejeon Citizen1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 45%
- at Newcastle Jets9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
- vs Công An Nhân Dân16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 62%
Port FC
- vs Beijing Guoan3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 29%
- at Gamba Osaka25 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 11%
- vs Kashima2 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 19%
- at SHANGHAI SIPG9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.