Sydney FC
vs
Adelaide United
A-League prediction
Our model says: Sydney FC 1–0 Adelaide United
The model makes it 38% Sydney FC, 28% draw, 34% Adelaide United — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sydney FC 1.38, Adelaide United 1.28.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: Sydney FC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Sydney FC 1–2 Adelaide United.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sydney FC vs Adelaide United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sydney FC at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Head-to-head: Sydney FC vs Adelaide United
- 14 February 2026Sydney FC 1–2 Adelaide UnitedA-League
- 17 October 2025Adelaide United 2–1 Sydney FCA-League
- 5 April 2025Adelaide United 2–3 Sydney FCA-League
- 1 February 2025Sydney FC 4–1 Adelaide UnitedA-League
- 20 December 2024Adelaide United 3–3 Sydney FCA-League
- 17 February 2024Sydney FC 2–1 Adelaide UnitedA-League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sydney FC carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.35 for Adelaide United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Sydney FC and 1.28 for Adelaide United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sydney FC rate 0.49 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Adelaide United rate 0.63 and 1.72.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sydney FC the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sydney FC against 1.28 for Adelaide United. Sydney FC's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.72 for Adelaide United.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sydney FC
- at Melbourne City31 Oct · A-Leaguewin 37%
- vs Central Coast Mariners6 Nov · A-Leaguewin 43%
- at Brisbane Roar21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 42%
- vs Melbourne Victory6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 35%
Adelaide United
- at Perth Glory1 Nov · A-Leaguewin 41%
- vs Melbourne Victory8 Nov · A-Leaguewin 37%
- at Western Sydney Wanderers20 Nov · A-Leaguewin 47%
- at Wellington Phoenix6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 45%
- vs Macarthur FC11 Dec · A-Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.