Real Salt Lake
vs
St. Louis City
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Real Salt Lake 1–2 St. Louis City
The model makes it 29% Real Salt Lake, 25% draw, 46% St. Louis City — fair odds of 3.45, 4.00 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Real Salt Lake 1.44, St. Louis City 1.92.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to St. Louis City: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Real Salt Lake are 11th on 32 points from 28 games; St. Louis City are 2nd on 50 points from 28 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Real Salt Lake have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Philadelphia Union.
- St. Louis City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 6-2 win at home to Los Angeles Galaxy.
- Last 6 meetings: Real Salt Lake 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt Lake.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City
Real Salt Lake
- L1-2away to Philadelphia Union10 October 2026
- W3-0New England Revolution27 September 2026
- L0-2away to Seattle Sounders24 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps20 September 2026
- L0-2New York City FC13 September 2026
St. Louis City
- W6-2Los Angeles Galaxy11 October 2026
- W3-0away to New York Red Bulls30 September 2026
- W3-1Toronto FC20 September 2026
- W4-2Minnesota United FC13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers10 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Salt Lake failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for St. Louis City had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 32 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 54 | 38 | +16 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Real Salt Lake
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
St. Louis City
Chance to finish top of the Western Conference · 38% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City
- 2 August 2026St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 19 October 2025St. Louis City 2–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2025Real Salt Lake 3–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 5 February 2025St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt LakeFriendlies Clubs
- 31 March 2024Real Salt Lake 3–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 25 February 2024St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Real Salt Lake and St. Louis City
Real Salt Lake
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro175
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Real Salt Lake carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.65 for St. Louis City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Real Salt Lake and 1.92 for St. Louis City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Salt Lake rate 0.59 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St. Louis City rate 0.89 and 1.33.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Salt Lake a 0% chance of the title and St. Louis City 38%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Louis City the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Real Salt Lake against 1.92 for St. Louis City. Real Salt Lake's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.33 for St. Louis City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Real Salt Lake at home · St. Louis City away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Real Salt Lake 28, St. Louis City 28.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Real Salt Lake
- at Austin29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 31%
- at San Jose Earthquakes31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 26%
- vs Los Angeles Galaxy8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 45%
St. Louis City
- vs Portland Timbers29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 59%
- vs San Diego31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 58%
- at Houston Dynamo8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.