Athletic Club
vs
Getafe
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Athletic Club 1–0 Getafe
The model makes it 45% Athletic Club, 33% draw, 22% Getafe — fair odds of 2.22, 3.03 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (19%).
Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.12, Getafe 0.63.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 26%, under 2.5: 74%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Athletic Club: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Athletic Club are 10th on 8 points from 6 games; Getafe are 14th on 8 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Athletic Club are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Alaves.
- Getafe have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Barcelona.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Getafe 2–0 Athletic Club.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Athletic Club vs Getafe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Athletic Club at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Athletic Club vs Getafe
Athletic Club
- D0-0Alaves19 September 2026
- D1-1Elche12 September 2026
- W3-0Atletico Madrid5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Celta Vigo30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Barcelona27 August 2026
Getafe
- L0-3away to Barcelona10 October 2026
- W1-0Malaga20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis17 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna13 September 2026
- D1-1Celta Vigo7 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Athletic Club had two goals or fewer.
- Getafe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Getafe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Getafe had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Getafe
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 24% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Getafe
Athletic Club and Getafe have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
Getafe won the last one 2–0 on 5 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Getafe | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 5 Apr 2026
La LigaGetafe 2–0 Athletic Club - 25 Oct 2025
La LigaAthletic Club 0–1 Getafe - 15 May 2025
La LigaGetafe 0–2 Athletic Club - 15 Aug 2024
La LigaAthletic Club 1–1 Getafe - 3 May 2024
La LigaGetafe 0–2 Athletic Club - 27 Sep 2023
La LigaAthletic Club 2–2 Getafe
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| Getafe | 0.56 | 0.76 |
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Athletic Club carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.79 for Getafe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Athletic Club and 0.63 for Getafe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Athletic Club rate 0.91 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Getafe rate 0.56 and 0.76.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Athletic Club the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Athletic Club against 0.63 for Getafe. Athletic Club's attack/defence rating is 0.91/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/0.76 for Getafe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Athletic Club at home · Getafe away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Athletic ClubGetafe
Athletic Club are 8th after 6 La Liga matches (between 7th and 19th so far); Getafe are 13th after 8 (between 7th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Athletic Club 6, Getafe 8.
Getafe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Athletic Club have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Athletic Club
- vs Real Sociedad1 Nov · La Ligawin 42%
- at Osasuna7 Nov · La Ligawin 38%
- vs Espanyol22 Nov · La Ligawin 46%
Getafe
- vs Sevilla1 Nov · La Ligawin 34%
- vs Brighton5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.