Regular Season - 32 · 29 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer prediction

Geodis Park, Nashville

Our model says: Nashville SC 2–1 Philadelphia Union

The model makes it 52% Nashville SC, 25% draw, 23% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Nashville SC 1.99, Philadelphia Union 1.15.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: High.

Edge to Nashville SC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Key facts

  • Nashville SC are top on 66 points from 29 games; Philadelphia Union are 6th on 45 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
  • Nashville SC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-0 win at home to Sporting Kansas City.
  • Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Chicago Fire.
  • Last 6 meetings: Nashville SC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Philadelphia Union 0–0 Nashville SC.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union

60%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Nashville SC win Draw Philadelphia Union win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 2–09%
  4. 1–08%
  5. 3–17%
  6. 1–26%
  7. 3–06%

Scores read Nashville SC first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 45%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Nashville SC at 52% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union

Nashville SC

  • W4-0Sporting Kansas City15 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Austin11 October 2026
  • W2-0Toronto FC27 September 2026
  • W3-0Chicago Fire20 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Inter Miami12 September 2026

Philadelphia Union

  • W3-1away to Chicago Fire15 October 2026
  • W2-1Real Salt Lake10 October 2026
  • W4-2Orlando City SC26 September 2026
  • W4-3away to Sporting Kansas City20 September 2026
  • W5-0away to San Diego14 September 2026

What these results say

  • Nashville SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Nashville SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Nashville SC won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Philadelphia Union won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Philadelphia Union had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Nashville SC2920636322+4166
6Philadelphia Union29136105946+1345

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Philadelphia Union

Chance to finish in the top four · 43% today

Win 67%
Draw 48%
Defeat 33%

From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union

  • 2 May 2026Philadelphia Union 0–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 17 September 2025Nashville SC 3–1 Philadelphia UnionUS Open Cup
  • 6 July 2025Nashville SC 1–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 16 March 2025Philadelphia Union 1–3 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 20 July 2024Philadelphia Union 3–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 7 April 2024Nashville SC 1–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union

Nashville SC

GoalsAssists

  • S. Surridge161
  • H. Mukhtar146

Philadelphia Union

GoalsAssists

  • M. Iloski172

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Nashville SC carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.7 for Philadelphia Union. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for Nashville SC and 1.15 for Philadelphia Union. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Nashville SC rate 0.86 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Philadelphia Union rate 0.92 and 1.26.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Nashville SC against 1.15 for Philadelphia Union. Nashville SC's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.26 for Philadelphia Union.

Season stats

Nashville SCPhiladelphia Union
27Matches27
18W 6D 3LRecord11W 6D 10L
55 2.0 per gameGoals scored54 2.0 per game
21 0.8 per gameGoals conceded44 1.6 per game
13 of 27Clean sheets6 of 27
5 of 27Failed to score5 of 27
3 of 3Penalties scored6 of 7
48 1.8 per gameYellow cards64 2.4 per game
1Red cards4
4-2-3-1 11×Usual shape4-4-2 26×

Nashville SC at home · Philadelphia Union away

14Played14
13W 1D 0LRecord5W 2D 7L
41–12Goals for – against31–31
6 of 14Clean sheets1 of 14

League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Major League Soccer matches this season: Nashville SC 27, Philadelphia Union 27.

Nashville SC scored 51199714
Philadelphia Union conceded 61274710

Nashville SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Philadelphia Union have let in 10 there.

Philadelphia Union scored 54811159
Nashville SC conceded 243363

Philadelphia Union score most often in the 61–75 minute window (15 goals); Nashville SC have let in 6 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Nashville SC

  • vs New York Red Bulls1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 66%
  • at FC Cincinnati7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 55%

Philadelphia Union

  • at FC Cincinnati31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 47%
  • vs Toronto FC7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 60%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.