Round of 32 · 27 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs FC Augsburg DFB Pokal prediction

WIRmachenDRUCK Arena, Aspach

Our model says: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–2 FC Augsburg

The model makes it 8% SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, 17% draw, 75% FC Augsburg — fair odds of 12.50, 5.88 and 1.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (13%).

Expected goals: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0.61, FC Augsburg 2.69.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.

Model confidence: High.

One-sided: FC Augsburg are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach are 19th in 3. Liga on 8 points from 8 games; FC Augsburg are 6th in Bundesliga on 8 points from 5 games.
  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat at home to Waldhof Mannheim.
  • FC Augsburg are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Bayern München.

Chance to go through

DFB Pokal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.

  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach6%
  • Level after ninety minutes13%
  • FC Augsburg81%

The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.

More DFB Pokal predictions

All DFB Pokal predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs FC Augsburg

43%
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win Draw FC Augsburg win
  1. 0–213%
  2. 0–312%
  3. 0–110%
  4. 1–28%
  5. 0–48%
  6. 1–37%
  7. 1–16%

Scores read SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 35%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Augsburg at 75% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs FC Augsburg

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

  • L1-5Waldhof Mannheim10 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Saarbrücken19 September 2026
  • D1-1Verl15 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Havelse12 September 2026
  • W1-0Hoffenheim II6 September 2026

FC Augsburg

  • D2-2Bayern München10 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Werder Bremen19 September 2026
  • D2-2Bayer Leverkusen12 September 2026
  • W4-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt6 September 2026
  • W3-0FC Schalke 0430 August 2026

What these results say

  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Augsburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC Augsburg had three goals or more.
  • FC Augsburg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and FC Augsburg in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
19SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga8224714-78
6FC AugsburgBundesliga5221138+58

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: 3. Liga · Bundesliga

Leading scorers: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and FC Augsburg

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

FC Augsburg

GoalsAssists

  • M. Gregoritsch30
  • R. Fellhauer30

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

A clear gap in the ratings

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach carry a model rating of 5.99 against 6.88 for FC Augsburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 0.61 goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 2.69 for FC Augsburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach rate 0.38 in attack and 2.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Augsburg rate 1.05 and 0.98.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Augsburg the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.61 expected goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach against 2.69 for FC Augsburg. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's attack/defence rating is 0.38/2.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/0.98 for FC Augsburg.

Season stats

SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachFC Augsburg
8Matches5
2W 2D 4LRecord2W 2D 1L
7 0.9 per gameGoals scored13 2.6 per game
14 1.8 per gameGoals conceded8 1.6 per game
2 of 8Clean sheets1 of 5
2 of 8Failed to score0 of 5
–Penalties scored–
17 2.1 per gameYellow cards8 1.6 per game
4-4-2 1×Usual shape3-4-2-1 4×

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home · FC Augsburg away

5Played2
2W 1D 2LRecord1W 0D 1L
4–8Goals for – against6–4
2 of 5Clean sheets0 of 2

League matches only, this season — SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach in the 3. Liga, FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 8 in the 3. Liga, FC Augsburg 5 in the Bundesliga.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scored 113201
FC Augsburg conceded 110214

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); FC Augsburg have let in 0 there.

FC Augsburg scored 120423
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach conceded 510115

FC Augsburg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach have let in 1 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

  • vs Rot-Weiß Essen1 Nov · 3. Ligawin 23%
  • at Hansa Rostock7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 16%
  • at Fortuna Düsseldorf21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 14%

FC Augsburg

  • vs SC Freiburg31 Oct · Bundesligawin 34%
  • at RB Leipzig7 Nov · Bundesligawin 21%
  • vs FSV Mainz 0522 Nov · Bundesligawin 46%
  • at 1899 Hoffenheim29 Nov · Bundesligawin 39%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.