FBC Melgar
vs
Comerciantes Unidos
Primera División prediction
Our model says: FBC Melgar 2–0 Comerciantes Unidos
The model makes it 56% FBC Melgar, 25% draw, 19% Comerciantes Unidos — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: FBC Melgar 1.93, Comerciantes Unidos 0.90.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to FBC Melgar: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- FBC Melgar are 4th on 47 points from 28 games; Comerciantes Unidos are 14th on 31 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- FBC Melgar are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Universitario.
- Comerciantes Unidos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Juan Pablo II College.
- Last 6 meetings: FBC Melgar 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 FBC Melgar.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FBC Melgar at 56% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos
FBC Melgar
- D2-2away to Universitario11 October 2026
- D1-1Sport Boys20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cusco12 September 2026
- W3-0ADT6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Grau1 September 2026
Comerciantes Unidos
- D1-1Juan Pablo II College10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Alianza Atletico18 September 2026
- L0-1Sport Huancayo12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Universitario6 September 2026
- L2-3FC Cajamarca28 August 2026
What these results say
- FBC Melgar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Comerciantes Unidos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Comerciantes Unidos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Comerciantes Unidos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 31 | +16 | 47 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos
- 10 May 2026Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 27 September 2025Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 2 May 2025FBC Melgar 1–1 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
- 7 September 2024FBC Melgar 3–0 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
- 2 March 2024Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 2 November 2018FBC Melgar 2–1 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
Leading scorers: FBC Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos
FBC Melgar
GoalsAssists
- B. Cuesta136
- J. Vidales121
Comerciantes Unidos
GoalsAssists
- M. Sen92
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FBC Melgar carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.28 for Comerciantes Unidos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for FBC Melgar and 0.90 for Comerciantes Unidos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FBC Melgar rate 0.69 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Comerciantes Unidos rate 0.55 and 1.72.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FBC Melgar a 0.2% chance of the title and Comerciantes Unidos 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FBC Melgar the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for FBC Melgar against 0.90 for Comerciantes Unidos. FBC Melgar's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.72 for Comerciantes Unidos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FBC Melgar at home · Comerciantes Unidos away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: FBC Melgar 28, Comerciantes Unidos 28.
FBC Melgar score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); Comerciantes Unidos have let in 6 there.
Comerciantes Unidos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); FBC Melgar have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FBC Melgar
- at Sport Huancayo31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
- vs Juan Pablo II College7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 57%
- at Alianza Atletico14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
Comerciantes Unidos
- vs ADT31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 49%
- at Deportivo Garcilaso7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 19%
- vs Sport Boys14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.