Atletico Nacional
vs
Santa Fe
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Santa Fe
The model makes it 50% Atletico Nacional, 27% draw, 23% Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Atletico Nacional 1.62, Santa Fe 0.93.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Atletico Nacional are 4th on 23 points from 11 games; Santa Fe are 6th on 22 points from 12 games — Primera A.
- Atletico Nacional are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Deportes Tolima.
- Santa Fe have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Independiente Medellin.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico Nacional 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 February 2026, ended Santa Fe 1–2 Atletico Nacional.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Nacional at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe
Atletico Nacional
- D0-0Deportes Tolima8 October 2026
- W3-1Junior1 October 2026
- D1-1Millonarios25 September 2026
- L0-2away to Llaneros21 September 2026
- W3-2away to Internacional de Bogota17 September 2026
Santa Fe
- W1-0away to Independiente Medellin6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Pereira29 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Cali23 September 2026
- W4-1away to Alianza Valledupar19 September 2026
- W1-0Deportes Tolima12 September 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Nacional conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santa Fe won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santa Fe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atletico Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 23 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atletico Nacional
Chance to finish top of the Clausura · 47% today
Santa Fe
Chance to finish in the top four · 47% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe
- 26 February 2026Santa Fe 1–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 26 July 2025Atletico Nacional 1–1 Santa FePrimera A
- 13 June 2025Santa Fe 1–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 8 June 2025Atletico Nacional 1–2 Santa FePrimera A
- 13 February 2025Santa Fe 2–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 9 December 2024Santa Fe 0–3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Leading scorers: Atletico Nacional and Santa Fe
Atletico Nacional
GoalsAssists
- A. Morelos146
- A. Sarmiento86
Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- H. Rodallega142
- N. Bustos115
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atletico Nacional carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.65 for Santa Fe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.93 for Santa Fe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Nacional rate 0.94 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santa Fe rate 0.79 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atletico Nacional a 46.6% chance of the title and Santa Fe 4.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Nacional the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Atletico Nacional against 0.93 for Santa Fe. Atletico Nacional's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.19 for Santa Fe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Nacional at home · Santa Fe away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Atletico Nacional 36, Santa Fe 35.
Atletico Nacional score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Santa Fe have let in 9 there.
Santa Fe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Atletico Nacional have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Nacional
- at Bucaramanga3 Nov · Primera Awin 32%
Santa Fe
- at Cucuta2 Nov · Primera Awin 41%
- vs Deportivo Pasto10 Nov · Primera Awin 60%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.