Nassaji Mazandaran
vs
Fajr Sepasi
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Nassaji Mazandaran 1–0 Fajr Sepasi
The model makes it 46% Nassaji Mazandaran, 27% draw, 27% Fajr Sepasi — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Nassaji Mazandaran 1.63, Fajr Sepasi 1.14.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Nassaji Mazandaran are 10th on 9 points from 8 games; Fajr Sepasi are 8th on 10 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Nassaji Mazandaran are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to ZOB Ahan.
- Fajr Sepasi have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Aluminium Arak.
- Last 6 meetings: Nassaji Mazandaran 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 January 2023, ended Nassaji Mazandaran 2–1 Fajr Sepasi.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nassaji Mazandaran vs Fajr Sepasi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nassaji Mazandaran at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nassaji Mazandaran vs Fajr Sepasi
Nassaji Mazandaran
- D1-1ZOB Ahan8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Mes Shahr-e Babak13 September 2026
- W1-0Kheybar Khorramabad7 September 2026
- W1-0away to Malavan2 September 2026
- L0-2Shams Azar Qazvin28 August 2026
Fajr Sepasi
- W2-1Aluminium Arak13 October 2026
- L1-6away to Sepahan FC8 October 2026
- L0-1away to Foolad FC7 September 2026
- D1-1Mes Shahr-e Babak3 September 2026
- D0-0ZOB Ahan29 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Nassaji Mazandaran had two goals or fewer.
- Nassaji Mazandaran scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fajr Sepasi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fajr Sepasi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Fajr Sepasi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Nassaji Mazandaran
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
Fajr Sepasi
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Nassaji Mazandaran vs Fajr Sepasi
- 11 January 2023Nassaji Mazandaran 2–1 Fajr SepasiHazfi Cup
- 24 January 2022Fajr Sepasi 1–1 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
- 19 October 2021Nassaji Mazandaran 1–0 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
- 23 April 2018Nassaji Mazandaran 2–0 Fajr SepasiAzadegan League
- 3 December 2017Fajr Sepasi 0–0 Nassaji MazandaranAzadegan League
- 6 February 2017Nassaji Mazandaran 0–1 Fajr SepasiAzadegan League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nassaji Mazandaran carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.26 for Fajr Sepasi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Nassaji Mazandaran and 1.14 for Fajr Sepasi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nassaji Mazandaran rate 0.51 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fajr Sepasi rate 0.60 and 1.97.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fajr Sepasi, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nassaji Mazandaran the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Nassaji Mazandaran against 1.14 for Fajr Sepasi. Nassaji Mazandaran's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.97 for Fajr Sepasi.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nassaji Mazandaran at home · Fajr Sepasi away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Nassaji Mazandaran 8, Fajr Sepasi 8.
Nassaji Mazandaran score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Fajr Sepasi have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Nassaji Mazandaran
- vs Persepolis FC30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 27%
- at Paykan7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 27%
Fajr Sepasi
- vs Tractor Sazi29 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 23%
- at Persepolis FC6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.