Alianza Valledupar
vs
Internacional de Bogota
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Internacional de Bogota
The model makes it 40% Alianza Valledupar, 28% draw, 32% Internacional de Bogota — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Alianza Valledupar 1.42, Internacional de Bogota 1.23.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Alianza Valledupar are 15th on 12 points from 13 games; Internacional de Bogota are 13th on 14 points from 14 games — Primera A.
- Alianza Valledupar have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Águilas Doradas.
- Internacional de Bogota have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Junior.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 April 2026, ended Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Alianza Valledupar.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alianza Valledupar at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota
Alianza Valledupar
- D2-2Águilas Doradas9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Deportivo Cali3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Jaguares27 September 2026
- L1-4Santa Fe19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chico16 September 2026
Internacional de Bogota
- D2-2away to Junior10 October 2026
- D1-1Once Caldas4 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pereira26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bucaramanga20 September 2026
- L2-3Atletico Nacional17 September 2026
What these results say
- Alianza Valledupar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Valledupar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Alianza Valledupar had three goals or more.
- Internacional de Bogota did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Internacional de Bogota conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Alianza Valledupar
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 40% today
Internacional de Bogota
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota
- 13 April 2026Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 24 October 2025Alianza Valledupar 2–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 3 May 2025Internacional de Bogota 0–2 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 2 November 2024Internacional de Bogota 3–2 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 15 April 2024Alianza Valledupar 0–3 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 23 August 2023Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Alianza Valledupar and Internacional de Bogota
Alianza Valledupar
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Internacional de Bogota
GoalsAssists
- F. Sanguinetti97
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Alianza Valledupar carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.37 for Internacional de Bogota. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Alianza Valledupar and 1.23 for Internacional de Bogota. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alianza Valledupar rate 0.57 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Internacional de Bogota rate 0.65 and 1.72.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Internacional de Bogota, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alianza Valledupar the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Alianza Valledupar against 1.23 for Internacional de Bogota. Alianza Valledupar's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.72 for Internacional de Bogota.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Alianza Valledupar at home · Internacional de Bogota away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Alianza Valledupar 32, Internacional de Bogota 34.
Internacional de Bogota score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Alianza Valledupar have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Alianza Valledupar
- at Once Caldas28 Oct · Primera Awin 18%
- at Independiente Medellin1 Nov · Primera Awin 16%
- vs Llaneros9 Nov · Primera Awin 37%
- at Millonarios12 Nov · Primera Awin 14%
Internacional de Bogota
- vs Independiente Medellin29 Oct · Primera Awin 35%
- at Chico8 Nov · Primera Awin 34%
- vs Santa Fe12 Nov · Primera Awin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.