Vasas
vs
Paks
NB I prediction
Our model says: Vasas 2–1 Paks
The model makes it 47% Vasas, 23% draw, 30% Paks — fair odds of 2.13, 4.35 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Vasas 2.11, Paks 1.60.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Vasas are 2nd on 15 points from 9 games; Paks are 5th on 14 points from 9 games — NB I.
- Vasas are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Kisvarda FC.
- Paks have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to MTK Budapest.
- Last 6 meetings: Vasas 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 April 2024, ended Vasas 2–5 Paks.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vasas vs Paks
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasas at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vasas vs Paks
Vasas
- D1-1Kisvarda FC10 October 2026
- W4-2away to Debreceni VSC19 September 2026
- W3-2Nyiregyhaza4 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ujpest29 August 2026
- L0-1Puskas Academy22 August 2026
Paks
- W3-0MTK Budapest10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Kisvarda FC19 September 2026
- L2-4Debreceni VSC5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Nyiregyhaza29 August 2026
- W2-0Ujpest21 August 2026
What these results say
- Vasas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vasas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Vasas.
- Paks scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Vasas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 15 |
| 5 | Paks | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Vasas
Chance to finish in the top four · 60% today
Paks
Chance to finish in the top four · 41% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Vasas vs Paks
- 3 April 2024Vasas 2–5 PaksMagyar Kupa
- 1 July 2023Paks 1–3 VasasFriendlies Clubs
- 19 March 2023Vasas 2–3 PaksNB I
- 1 March 2023Paks 2–3 VasasMagyar Kupa
- 29 October 2022Paks 0–1 VasasNB I
- 5 August 2022Vasas 2–2 PaksNB I
Leading scorers: Vasas and Paks
Vasas
GoalsAssists
- M. Kovácsréti21
- M. Tóth21
Paks
GoalsAssists
- J. Szalai61
- M. Pető40
- Z. Haraszti22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vasas carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.51 for Paks. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Vasas and 1.60 for Paks. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasas rate 0.80 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paks rate 0.79 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vasas a 13.8% chance of the title and Paks 6.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasas the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Vasas against 1.60 for Paks. Vasas's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.58 for Paks.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vasas at home · Paks away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Vasas 9, Paks 9.
Vasas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Paks have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Vasas
- at Gyori ETO FC31 Oct · NB Iwin 28%
- vs Ferencvarosi TC7 Nov · NB Iwin 34%
- at Zalaegerszegi TE21 Nov · NB Iwin 41%
- vs Budapest Honved28 Nov · NB Iwin 54%
Paks
- at Ferencvarosi TC31 Oct · NB Iwin 24%
- vs Zalaegerszegi TE7 Nov · NB Iwin 48%
- at Budapest Honved21 Nov · NB Iwin 40%
- vs Puskas Academy28 Nov · NB Iwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.