Malavan
vs
Chadormalu SC
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Malavan 2–1 Chadormalu SC
The model makes it 40% Malavan, 27% draw, 33% Chadormalu SC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Malavan 1.56, Chadormalu SC 1.37.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Malavan are 13th on 8 points from 8 games; Chadormalu SC are 11th on 9 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Malavan have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Foolad FC.
- Chadormalu SC are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Kheybar Khorramabad.
- Last 5 meetings: Malavan 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 January 2026, ended Malavan 1–0 Chadormalu SC.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Malavan vs Chadormalu SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Malavan at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Malavan vs Chadormalu SC
Malavan
- L1-2Foolad FC13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Aluminium Arak8 October 2026
- W2-1away to Mes Shahr-e Babak7 September 2026
- L0-1Nassaji Mazandaran2 September 2026
- L0-3away to Persepolis FC29 August 2026
Chadormalu SC
- D2-2Kheybar Khorramabad9 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sanat Naft12 September 2026
- W1-0Shams Azar Qazvin6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Esteghlal Khuzestan1 September 2026
- L0-2Tractor Sazi28 August 2026
What these results say
- Malavan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Malavan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chadormalu SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chadormalu SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Malavan | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 11 | Chadormalu SC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Malavan vs Chadormalu SC
- 29 January 2026Malavan 1–0 Chadormalu SCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 13 September 2025Chadormalu SC 0–0 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 1 February 2025Chadormalu SC 1–0 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 24 November 2024Chadormalu SC 2–2 MalavanHazfi Cup
- 30 August 2024Malavan 3–1 Chadormalu SCPersian Gulf Pro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Malavan carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.34 for Chadormalu SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Malavan and 1.37 for Chadormalu SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Malavan rate 0.56 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chadormalu SC rate 0.62 and 1.71.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Chadormalu SC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Malavan the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Malavan against 1.37 for Chadormalu SC. Malavan's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.71 for Chadormalu SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Malavan at home · Chadormalu SC away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Malavan 8, Chadormalu SC 8.
Chadormalu SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Malavan have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Malavan
- at Sepahan FC6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 14%
Chadormalu SC
- vs Foolad FC6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.