Abha
vs
Al-Ittihad
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Abha 1–2 Al-Ittihad
The model makes it 24% Abha, 25% draw, 51% Al-Ittihad — fair odds of 4.17, 4.00 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Abha 1.10, Al-Ittihad 1.86.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Ittihad are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Abha are bottom on 2 points from 7 games; Al-Ittihad are 4th on 17 points from 8 games — Pro League.
- Abha have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Al Diriyah.
- Al-Ittihad have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Al-Hilal.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Ittihad 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2024, ended Abha 3–1 Al-Ittihad.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Abha vs Al-Ittihad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ittihad at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Abha vs Al-Ittihad
Abha
- D0-0away to Al Diriyah13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Nassr9 September 2026
- L0-1Al-Ettifaq4 September 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Fayha28 August 2026
- D1-1Al Khaleej Saihat25 August 2026
Al-Ittihad
- L2-3away to Al-Hilal10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC11 September 2026
- W2-1Al-Fayha8 September 2026
- W2-1Al-Nassr5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Fateh29 August 2026
What these results say
- Abha did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Abha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Ittihad had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Abha vs Al-Ittihad
- 3 May 2024Abha 3–1 Al-IttihadPro League
- 10 November 2023Al-Ittihad 4–2 AbhaPro League
- 8 May 2023Al-Ittihad 4–0 AbhaPro League
- 31 December 2022Abha 1–2 Al-IttihadPro League
- 6 February 2022Abha 0–4 Al-IttihadPro League
- 11 September 2021Al-Ittihad 6–1 AbhaPro League
Leading scorers: Abha and Al-Ittihad
Abha
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Al-Ittihad
GoalsAssists
- S. Bergwijn51
- Y. En-Nesyri50
- G. Ilenikhena42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Abha carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.67 for Al-Ittihad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Abha and 1.86 for Al-Ittihad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Abha rate 0.56 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Ittihad rate 0.84 and 1.20.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Abha a 0% chance of the title and Al-Ittihad 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ittihad the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Abha against 1.86 for Al-Ittihad. Abha's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.2 for Al-Ittihad.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Abha at home · Al-Ittihad away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Abha 7, Al-Ittihad 8.
Abha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Al-Ittihad have let in 1 there.
Al-Ittihad score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Abha have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Abha
- vs Al Shabab5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 33%
Al-Ittihad
- vs Al Ain2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.