Brisbane Roar
vs
Auckland FC
A-League prediction
Our model says: Brisbane Roar 1–2 Auckland FC
The model makes it 26% Brisbane Roar, 26% draw, 48% Auckland FC — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Brisbane Roar 1.15, Auckland FC 1.76.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Auckland FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Last 5 meetings: Auckland FC 3 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 January 2026, ended Brisbane Roar 0–2 Auckland FC.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Brisbane Roar vs Auckland FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Auckland FC at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Head-to-head: Brisbane Roar vs Auckland FC
- 9 January 2026Brisbane Roar 0–2 Auckland FCA-League
- 23 November 2025Auckland FC 1–1 Brisbane RoarA-League
- 3 August 2025Brisbane Roar 2–2 Auckland FCFriendlies Clubs
- 30 March 2025Brisbane Roar 0–2 Auckland FCA-League
- 19 October 2024Auckland FC 2–0 Brisbane RoarA-League
The two sides
Brisbane Roar carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.43 for Auckland FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.76 for Auckland FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brisbane Roar rate 0.49 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Auckland FC rate 0.62 and 1.44.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Auckland FC the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Brisbane Roar against 1.76 for Auckland FC. Brisbane Roar's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.44 for Auckland FC.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Brisbane Roar
- at Macarthur FC8 Nov · A-Leaguewin 33%
- vs Sydney FC21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 29%
- at Central Coast Mariners12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 33%
- at Adelaide United15 Dec · A-Leaguewin 28%
Auckland FC
- vs Wellington Phoenix7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 52%
- vs Melbourne Victory21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 41%
- at Central Coast Mariners28 Nov · A-Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.