Deportivo Garcilaso
vs
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Garcilaso 2–0 Club Deportivo Los Chankas
The model makes it 60% Deportivo Garcilaso, 24% draw, 16% Club Deportivo Los Chankas — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Deportivo Garcilaso 1.96, Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0.75.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Deportivo Garcilaso are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Deportivo Garcilaso are 3rd on 48 points from 28 games; Club Deportivo Los Chankas are 8th on 43 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Deportivo Garcilaso have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sport Huancayo.
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Atletico Grau.
- Last 5 meetings: Deportivo Garcilaso 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 May 2026, ended Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0–1 Deportivo Garcilaso.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Garcilaso at 60% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Deportivo Garcilaso
- L0-1Sport Huancayo10 October 2026
- W4-0Universitario19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sport Boys13 September 2026
- W4-2Atletico Grau6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Alianza Lima30 August 2026
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- D0-0away to Atletico Grau8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cienciano30 September 2026
- L1-2FC Cajamarca12 September 2026
- L0-5away to Sporting Cristal6 September 2026
- L3-4Juan Pablo II College29 August 2026
What these results say
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 48 |
| 8 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportivo Garcilaso
Chance to finish in the top four · 74% today
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Chance to finish in the top four · 2% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- 4 May 2026Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0–1 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
- 19 July 2025Deportivo Garcilaso 3–0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División
- 10 February 2025Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2–2 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
- 29 September 2024Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1–0 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
- 29 April 2024Deportivo Garcilaso 1–1 Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División
Leading scorers: Deportivo Garcilaso and Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Deportivo Garcilaso
GoalsAssists
- L. da Silva113
- C. Olivares72
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
GoalsAssists
- F. Torres94
- J. Quintero61
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Deportivo Garcilaso carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.19 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.96 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.75 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Garcilaso rate 0.62 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Deportivo Los Chankas rate 0.52 and 1.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Deportivo Garcilaso a 0.3% chance of the title and Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Garcilaso the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Deportivo Garcilaso against 0.75 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. Deportivo Garcilaso's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.94 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Garcilaso at home · Club Deportivo Los Chankas away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Deportivo Garcilaso 28, Club Deportivo Los Chankas 28.
Deportivo Garcilaso score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Club Deportivo Los Chankas have let in 7 there.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Deportivo Garcilaso have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Garcilaso
- at Alianza Atletico28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
- at UTC Cajamarca31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 49%
- vs Comerciantes Unidos7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 55%
- at Juan Pablo II College14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 39%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- vs Cusco28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
- at UCV Moquegua31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
- vs Alianza Lima7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 24%
- at UTC Cajamarca14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.