Club Sp. San Lorenzo
vs
Cerro Porteno
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–1 Cerro Porteno
The model makes it 20% Club Sp. San Lorenzo, 29% draw, 51% Cerro Porteno — fair odds of 5.00, 3.45 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0.73, Cerro Porteno 1.50.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Cerro Porteno are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo are bottom on 4 points from 14 games; Cerro Porteno are 7th on 20 points from 14 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sportivo Trinidense.
- Cerro Porteno have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Sportivo Luqueno.
- Last 6 meetings: Cerro Porteno 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 14 October 2026, ended Cerro Porteno 2–2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Cerro Porteno
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cerro Porteno at 51% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Cerro Porteno
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- D1-1Sportivo Trinidense10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Club Guarani3 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Recoleta28 September 2026
- L0-3Olimpia20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sportivo Ameliano11 September 2026
Cerro Porteno
- W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno10 October 2026
- L0-22 de Mayo5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sportivo Trinidense26 September 2026
- W1-0Rubio NU19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Club Guarani12 September 2026
What these results say
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Club Sp. San Lorenzo had two goals or fewer.
- Cerro Porteno scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 4 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Cerro Porteno
- 14 October 2026Cerro Porteno 2–2 Club Sp. San LorenzoCopa Paraguay
- 16 August 2026Cerro Porteno 1–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 28 March 2026Cerro Porteno 2–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 27 January 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2–4 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 13 December 2020Cerro Porteno 1–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 2 October 2020Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Cerro Porteno
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Cerro Porteno
GoalsAssists
- P. Vegetti70
- D. Rodríguez43
- I. Ramírez32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Club Sp. San Lorenzo carry a model rating of 6.04 against 6.53 for Cerro Porteno. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.73 goals for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 1.50 for Cerro Porteno. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club Sp. San Lorenzo rate 0.35 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cerro Porteno rate 0.67 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Sp. San Lorenzo a 0% chance of the title and Cerro Porteno 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cerro Porteno the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Club Sp. San Lorenzo against 1.50 for Cerro Porteno. Club Sp. San Lorenzo's attack/defence rating is 0.35/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.29 for Cerro Porteno.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home · Cerro Porteno away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 14, Cerro Porteno 14.
Club Sp. San Lorenzo score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Cerro Porteno have let in 2 there.
Cerro Porteno score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Club Sp. San Lorenzo have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- vs Libertad Asuncion5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 20%
- at Nacional Asuncion8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 8%
- vs Rubio NU15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 30%
- at 2 de Mayo18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 12%
Cerro Porteno
- vs Olimpia5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 38%
- at Libertad Asuncion8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 29%
- vs Deportivo Recoleta15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 62%
- at Nacional Asuncion18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.