Seattle Sounders
vs
Houston Dynamo
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Seattle Sounders 1–0 Houston Dynamo
The model makes it 40% Seattle Sounders, 30% draw, 30% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Seattle Sounders 1.28, Houston Dynamo 1.01.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Seattle Sounders are 7th on 41 points from 29 games; Houston Dynamo are 5th on 46 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Seattle Sounders have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FC Dallas.
- Houston Dynamo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to San Diego.
- Last 5 meetings: Seattle Sounders 2 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Houston Dynamo 0–1 Seattle Sounders.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Seattle Sounders at 40% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo
Seattle Sounders
- L0-1away to FC Dallas15 October 2026
- W3-0away to New England Revolution10 October 2026
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City2 October 2026
- W3-1Minnesota United FC27 September 2026
- W2-0Real Salt Lake24 September 2026
Houston Dynamo
- D3-3away to San Diego15 October 2026
- D2-2away to Minnesota United FC11 October 2026
- L0-2Sporting Kansas City27 September 2026
- D2-2FC Cincinnati20 September 2026
- L0-1away to San Jose Earthquakes13 September 2026
What these results say
- Seattle Sounders won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 38 | 36 | +2 | 41 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Seattle Sounders
Chance to finish in the top four · 4% today
Houston Dynamo
Chance to finish in the top four · 37% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo
- 5 April 2026Houston Dynamo 0–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 11 May 2025Houston Dynamo 1–3 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2025Seattle Sounders 0–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 3 November 2024Houston Dynamo 1–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 29 October 2024Seattle Sounders 0–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Seattle Sounders and Houston Dynamo
Seattle Sounders
GoalsAssists
- D. Joveljić121
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme146
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Seattle Sounders carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.52 for Houston Dynamo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Seattle Sounders and 1.01 for Houston Dynamo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Seattle Sounders rate 0.60 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Houston Dynamo rate 0.57 and 1.16.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Houston Dynamo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Seattle Sounders a 0% chance of the title and Houston Dynamo 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Seattle Sounders the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Seattle Sounders against 1.01 for Houston Dynamo. Seattle Sounders's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.16 for Houston Dynamo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Seattle Sounders at home · Houston Dynamo away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Seattle Sounders 29, Houston Dynamo 28.
Seattle Sounders score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Houston Dynamo have let in 10 there.
Houston Dynamo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Seattle Sounders have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Seattle Sounders
- at Vancouver Whitecaps1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 21%
- vs Los Angeles FC8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 35%
Houston Dynamo
- at Portland Timbers2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 34%
- vs St. Louis City8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.