Orlando City SC
vs
New York City FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Orlando City SC 2–1 New York City FC
The model makes it 41% Orlando City SC, 25% draw, 34% New York City FC — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Orlando City SC 1.79, New York City FC 1.61.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Orlando City SC are 7th on 37 points from 28 games; New York City FC are 10th on 33 points from 28 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Orlando City SC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Columbus Crew.
- New York City FC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Chicago Fire.
- Last 6 meetings: New York City FC 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended New York City FC 5–0 Orlando City SC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Orlando City SC vs New York City FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orlando City SC at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Orlando City SC vs New York City FC
Orlando City SC
- W3-2Columbus Crew10 October 2026
- L2-4away to Philadelphia Union26 September 2026
- L2-4away to New England Revolution19 September 2026
- W3-0Toronto FC12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Atlanta United FC9 September 2026
New York City FC
- L1-2away to Chicago Fire10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Atlanta United FC26 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution10 September 2026
What these results say
- Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
- Orlando City SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 37 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 42 | 38 | +4 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
New York City FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Orlando City SC vs New York City FC
- 7 March 2026New York City FC 5–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2025Orlando City SC 1–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025New York City FC 2–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 20 July 2024Orlando City SC 1–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 28 June 2024New York City FC 4–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 20 September 2023New York City FC 2–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and New York City FC
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda132
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau154
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Orlando City SC carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.54 for New York City FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Orlando City SC and 1.61 for New York City FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orlando City SC rate 0.82 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New York City FC rate 0.63 and 1.19.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orlando City SC the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Orlando City SC against 1.61 for New York City FC. Orlando City SC's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.19 for New York City FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Orlando City SC at home · New York City FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Orlando City SC 27, New York City FC 27.
Orlando City SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); New York City FC have let in 9 there.
New York City FC score most often in the 16–30 minute window (10 goals); Orlando City SC have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Orlando City SC
- at Chicago Fire29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 25%
- at Charlotte31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 25%
- vs New England Revolution7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 43%
New York City FC
- vs Atlanta United FC28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 50%
- vs CF Montreal31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 54%
- at DC United7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.