Benevento
vs
Catanzaro
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Benevento 1–0 Catanzaro
The model makes it 49% Benevento, 26% draw, 25% Catanzaro — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Benevento 1.71, Catanzaro 1.07.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Benevento are 8th on 10 points from 6 games; Catanzaro are 19th on 3 points from 6 games — Serie B.
- Benevento are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Cesena.
- Catanzaro have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Mantova.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Benevento vs Catanzaro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benevento at 49% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Benevento vs Catanzaro
Benevento
- W2-0Cesena10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Carrarese19 September 2026
- W3-1Hellas Verona11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Ascoli5 September 2026
- D1-1Sudtirol30 August 2026
Catanzaro
- L1-3Mantova11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sampdoria19 September 2026
- W1-0Carrarese12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sudtirol5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Pisa30 August 2026
What these results say
- Benevento scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Benevento had two goals or fewer.
- Catanzaro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Benevento | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 19 | Catanzaro | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Benevento
Chance to finish in the top four · 39% today
Catanzaro
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Benevento carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.54 for Catanzaro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Benevento and 1.07 for Catanzaro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Benevento rate 0.74 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Catanzaro rate 0.82 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Benevento a 7.9% chance of the title and Catanzaro 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benevento the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Benevento against 1.07 for Catanzaro. Benevento's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.54 for Catanzaro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Benevento at home · Catanzaro away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BeneventoCatanzaro
Benevento are 6th after 6 Serie B matches (between 6th and 17th so far); Catanzaro are 18th after 6 (between 17th and 19th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Benevento 6, Catanzaro 6.
Benevento score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Catanzaro have let in 3 there.
Catanzaro score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Benevento have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Benevento
- at Cremonese31 Oct · Serie Bwin 27%
- vs Avellino7 Nov · Serie Bwin 48%
- at Sampdoria21 Nov · Serie Bwin 42%
Catanzaro
- vs Padova31 Oct · Serie Bwin 48%
- at Cesena7 Nov · Serie Bwin 36%
- vs Palermo21 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.