Toronto FC
vs
DC United
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Toronto FC 2–1 DC United
The model makes it 47% Toronto FC, 26% draw, 27% DC United — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Toronto FC 1.77, DC United 1.20.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Toronto FC are 11th on 32 points from 28 games; DC United are 12th on 30 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Toronto FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to CF Montreal.
- DC United are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Inter Miami.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended DC United 2–1 Toronto FC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Toronto FC vs DC United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toronto FC at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Toronto FC vs DC United
Toronto FC
- W2-1CF Montreal10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Nashville SC27 September 2026
- L1-3away to St. Louis City20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Orlando City SC12 September 2026
- W2-1Nashville SC9 September 2026
DC United
- L0-4away to Inter Miami10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps27 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte19 September 2026
- D0-0Atlanta United FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Columbus Crew9 September 2026
What these results say
- Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Toronto FC had three goals or more.
- DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- DC United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for DC United had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Toronto FC vs DC United
- 25 July 2026DC United 2–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 10 May 2025Toronto FC 2–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025DC United 2–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 31 August 2024Toronto FC 1–3 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 1 June 2024DC United 2–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 27 May 2023Toronto FC 2–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Toronto FC and DC United
Toronto FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo140
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Toronto FC carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.37 for DC United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Toronto FC and 1.20 for DC United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Toronto FC rate 0.64 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; DC United rate 0.57 and 1.51.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Toronto FC the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Toronto FC against 1.20 for DC United. Toronto FC's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.51 for DC United.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Toronto FC at home · DC United away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Toronto FC 27, DC United 26.
Toronto FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); DC United have let in 11 there.
DC United score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Toronto FC have let in 13 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Toronto FC
- at Atlanta United FC1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 34%
- at Philadelphia Union7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 20%
DC United
- at Columbus Crew31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.