Round of 32 · 27 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Rot-Weiß Essen vs RB Leipzig DFB Pokal prediction

Stadion an der Hafenstrasse, Essen

Our model says: Rot-Weiß Essen 0–2 RB Leipzig

The model makes it 13% Rot-Weiß Essen, 20% draw, 67% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 7.69, 5.00 and 1.49. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).

Expected goals: Rot-Weiß Essen 0.77, RB Leipzig 2.37.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: High.

One-sided: RB Leipzig are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Rot-Weiß Essen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Fortuna Köln.
  • RB Leipzig have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 6-0 win at home to Eintracht Frankfurt.

Chance to go through

DFB Pokal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.

  • Rot-Weiß Essen10%
  • Level after ninety minutes17%
  • RB Leipzig73%

The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.

More DFB Pokal predictions

All DFB Pokal predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Rot-Weiß Essen vs RB Leipzig

49%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Rot-Weiß Essen win Draw RB Leipzig win
  1. 0–212%
  2. 0–110%
  3. 0–310%
  4. 1–29%
  5. 1–18%
  6. 1–37%
  7. 0–46%

Scores read Rot-Weiß Essen first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 37%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts RB Leipzig at 67% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Rot-Weiß Essen vs RB Leipzig

Rot-Weiß Essen

  • W2-0Fortuna Köln13 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Preußen Münster9 October 2026
  • D1-1Hansa Rostock20 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Waldhof Mannheim16 September 2026
  • W6-2Würzburger Kickers12 September 2026

RB Leipzig

  • W1-0PSV Eindhoven13 October 2026
  • W6-0Eintracht Frankfurt10 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Bayer Leverkusen20 September 2026
  • W5-0Hamburger SV13 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Como10 September 2026

What these results say

  • Rot-Weiß Essen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Rot-Weiß Essen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Rot-Weiß Essen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • RB Leipzig scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Rot-Weiß Essen vs RB Leipzig

  • 17 August 2024Rot-Weiß Essen 1–4 RB LeipzigDFB Pokal

A clear gap in the ratings

Rot-Weiß Essen carry a model rating of 6.41 against 7.12 for RB Leipzig. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 0.77 goals for Rot-Weiß Essen and 2.37 for RB Leipzig. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Rot-Weiß Essen rate 0.61 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; RB Leipzig rate 1.33 and 0.78.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives RB Leipzig the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Rot-Weiß Essen against 2.37 for RB Leipzig. Rot-Weiß Essen's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.33/0.78 for RB Leipzig.

Season stats

Rot-Weiß EssenRB Leipzig
9Matches5
5W 3D 1LRecord3W 0D 2L
18 2.0 per gameGoals scored15 3.0 per game
12 1.3 per gameGoals conceded5 1.0 per game
4 of 9Clean sheets3 of 5
1 of 9Failed to score1 of 5
2 of 2Penalties scored–
26 2.9 per gameYellow cards6 1.2 per game
4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape4-3-3 3×

Rot-Weiß Essen at home · RB Leipzig away

5Played2
4W 1D 0LRecord0W 0D 2L
11–3Goals for – against1–5
3 of 5Clean sheets0 of 2

League matches only, this season — Rot-Weiß Essen in the 3. Liga, RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Rot-Weiß Essen 9 in the 3. Liga, RB Leipzig 5 in the Bundesliga.

Rot-Weiß Essen scored 152137
RB Leipzig conceded 101111

Rot-Weiß Essen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); RB Leipzig have let in 1 there.

RB Leipzig scored 232233
Rot-Weiß Essen conceded 012233

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Rot-Weiß Essen

  • at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1 Nov · 3. Ligawin 49%
  • vs Alemannia Aachen7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 48%
  • at Verl21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 32%
  • vs Hoffenheim II28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 56%

RB Leipzig

  • at FC Schalke 0431 Oct · Bundesligawin 49%
  • vs Manchester City4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 35%
  • vs FC Augsburg7 Nov · Bundesligawin 57%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.